Giants' Biggest Question Mark on Defense Revealed in New Analysis

While everyone is waiting for the New York Giants to answer the one question everyone has been waiting for this offseason: how they will shape out their quarterbacks' room. There is a separate in-house unknown that seemingly isn’t gaining enough attention—and might need to—before the upcoming campaign arrives.

Within the next 12 months, the Giants will have to discern the fates of several key players from their 2022 draft class, the first executed by general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll, whose tenures are now hanging in the balance.

That core, of which eight players remain on the roster ahead of the 2025 season, has offered things to the team on both sides of the ball but is undoubtedly headlined by outside linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux and his tricky situation with the franchise.

Thibodeaux, the Giants' fifth-overall selection from that draft, is entering the fourth year of his rookie contract and one that has seen mixed results from the former first-round prospect out of Oregon, primarily due to injuries and strange lapses in production.

The 24-year-old pass rusher holds a fifth-year club option on his current contract that the Giants must decide on by May 1st, lest they want to wait and hand him a long-term extension next offseason.

The dilemma, named by Pro Football Network as the Giants’ biggest post-free agency question on defense, will loom over Schoen and Daboll as they continue to navigate the future of their overall roster.

New York Giants outside linebacker Kayvon Thibodeau — Dec 29, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux (5) signs an autograph after the game against the Indianapolis Colts at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

“Although former fifth overall pick Kayvon Thibodeaux hasn’t been a disappointment, he’s been far from a superstar as well,” the analysis began.

“Thibodeaux saw his sack total drop from 11.5 in 2023 to 5.5 in 2024, but his career pressure total has hovered around 10% in all three seasons.

“Since 2022, Thibodeaux’s 9.9% pressure rate ranks 52nd out of 68 players to rush the passer 1,000+ times… That leaves him as a solid No. 2 complement to Brian Burns, which makes a potential extension a tricky question.”

Interestingly, Thibodeaux’s injuries were not mentioned, which have cost him games. He lost three games as a rookie and five games last season.

When he played a full season in 2023, he recorded his single-season career-high of 11.5 sacks. As far as sacks are concerned, he recorded 1.5 more sacks in 12 games played than the 14 games he played as a rookie.

Pass rushers don’t grow on trees, and two or more pass rushers on the same rarely define record double-digit sacks. It wouldn’t hurt the Giants to exercise the fifth-year option in Thibodeaux’s rookie contract.

As PFN notes, it would only cost the team $16.1 million towards their 2026 cap space, which seems like a good bargain for Thibodeaux. According to Spotrac, he is already projected to draw around $20 million in average annual value should he hit the open market.

The Giants are already financially loaded with the contracts of Dexter Lawrence and edge rusher Brian Burns. The latter is the sixth-highest-paid edge player at $28.2 million AAV.

Retaining Thibodeaux through his fifth-year option would allow the Giants to have a nice trifecta up front and a guy who still finished in the top 20 players at his position in pass rush win rate (17%) this past season.

When the Giants were looking for a defensive spark late in the season to help them stay close in their games, Thibodeaux and Burns stepped up in the absence of Lawrence, who was sidelined for the rest of the year due to an elbow injury. The duo combined for 13.5 sacks and could be set for more damage with an entire season under their belts in Shane Bowen’s system.

Beyond the 2026 season, though, whether the Giants choose to extend Thibodeaux could depend on two factors: the money he will seek compared to the production he has brought in the past two seasons and whether the Giants find value in it rather than going a cheaper route.

Jul 26, 2024; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux (5) walks the sideline during training camp at Quest Diagnostics Training Center. | Lucas Boland-Imagn Images

If Thibodeaux were to attain the projected AAV of $20.4 million that Spotrac estimates for him, it would still fall significantly below the next four closest edge rushers in terms of average salary and age at time of signing.

His closest comparison would be Bradley Chubb, who got $22 million per year when he signed his five-year extension at the age of 26. That contract hasn’t really panned out, as Chubb has changed teams and only produced more than 5.5 sacks twice in the same time period.

From a statistical standpoint, Thibodeaux is in the company of a list of players, including his teammate Burns and All-Pro T.J. Watt of the Steelers, and actually closely mirrors a couple of them in key metrics such as stops per game.

Then again, the Giants might not see the value in continuing the relationship with their former first-round pick unless he returns with a vengeance and has an irrefutable season in 2025 that demands that pay him his just bag.

Especially when they see a generational talent in the upcoming draft pool in Adbul Carter who suddenly becomes more appealing now that the Giants have secured two veteran quarterbacks and don’t necessarily have to stress about nailing one with their No. 3 choice.

They could take Carter if he is there at their turn and have that same trio of scary pass rushers except with a much cheaper piece that is under team control for a few years. Or Thibodeaux may want to test the free agent waters anyway since it would be his first chance since entering the NFL.

It all remains to be seen what the Giants do, beginning with their decision on his fifth-year option in the next month. Until then, all the noise will be on focused on the quarterback position while outside bidders could silently be planning their offers for the young pass rusher in the offseason to come.

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