Why John Harbaugh and a Revamped Roster Will Push the Giants Over 7.5 Wins in 2026

The New York Giants are coming off a four-win season that brought significant changes to both the roster and the coaching staff. The goal, of course, is to get the team back on track to winning seasons, with an eye toward the postseason.

But despite the early optimism, the additions like tight end Isaiah Likely, linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Arvell Reese, offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa, and a revamped special teams battery, not everyone is optimistic that the Giants have what they need to get back on track.

SI.com's Gilberto Manzano, in his forecast of each team’s ability to reach its projected over/under win total in 2026, is not sold on the Giants reaching their forecasted total of 7.5 wins despite the addition of Harbaugh. i

“I just don’t know if the Giants can go from a competitive team to a playoff contender in Year 1. With hesitation, I’ll say the wins won’t come fast, but there could be a strong finish to create real buzz for next season," Manzano said.

Why We Disagree

New York Giants head coach John Harbaugh was the biggest offseason addition made by the team. | John Jones-Imagn Images

The Giants are building a team that can win on both sides of the football. They have a pair of top-10 picks in Reese and Mauigoa, who will be Day 1 starters on two different units that were in need of upgrades from last season.

On top of that, quarterback Jaxson Dart should feel much more comfortable than he did a year ago as a rookie coming out of Ole Miss.

The biggest reason the Giants should beat their projected win total is the addition of coach Harbaugh.

During his 18-year run with the Baltimore Ravens, Harbaugh finished under 7.5 wins only once, in 2015, when quarterback Joe Flacco's season-ending injury in Week 10 compromised the Ravens' season.

While this year's Giants roster might not have the same level of talent as Harbaugh's Ravens teams—and given questions surrounding when top receiver Malik Nabers should be ready to return to the field—the Giants, at least on paper, seem to have addressed the majority of their areas of weakness from years past, the biggest being the coaching.

Here is our own forecast for the Giants’ 2026 season and why we think they can beat the 7.5 projected win total.

Giants Schedule

Week	Opponent
1	vs. Dallas Cowboys
2	at Los Angeles Rams
3	vs. Tennessee Titans
4	vs. Arizona Cardinals
5	at Washington Commanders
6	vs. New Orleans Saints
7	at Houston Texans
8	Bye Week
9	at Philadelphia Eagles
10	vs. Washington Commanders
11	vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
12	at Indianapolis Colts
13	vs. San Francisco 49ers
14	at Seattle Seahawks
15	vs. Cleveland Browns
16	at Detroit Lions
17	at Dallas Cowboys
18	vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Locks

Former Giants head coach Brian Daboll, now the Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator, and several former Giants will return to MetLife Stadium for a game against Big Blue early in the season. | DENNY SIMMONS / THE TENNESSEAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Giants have some very winnable games on their roster that they should be able to win. In the first month of the season, the Giants have a pair of games that could put them on the right path.

Games at home against the Titans and Cardinals are great opportunities for the Giants to add to their win total. If they can beat the Dallas Cowboys or Los Angeles Rams in either of the first two weeks, the Giants could be 3-1 or even 4-0 in the first month of the year.

The Giants also have a winnable game in Week 15 when they host the Cleveland Browns at MetLife Stadium. That marks their third locked win, which almost eclipses their win total from last year.

The Likely Losses (3)

The Giants have a tough Week 2 road contest on the road against the Los Angeles Rams and quarterback Matthew Stafford. | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

The Giants have some tough games on the schedule where they will be viewed as massive underdogs.

Visiting the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks will likely result in a pair of losses, considering they probably have the top two defenses in the league. Their crowds will be rowdy, trying to disrupt Dart and the offense.

The Giants also face off against the Rams in their home opener on Monday Night Football in Week 2, which is one of their trickiest games on the schedule.

The Rest

The Giants need to find a way to start winning road games against the Eagles and Cowboys, two division rivals. | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

For the Giants to beat their win total, they will have to go 5-6 in the remaining games, assuming they win all three locked games and lose all three matchups previously listed.

All six of their divisional games are in this section of the schedule, and the Giants should be able to make up some ground here. If they can go 3-3 against the Cowboys, Eagles and Commanders, that could be the easiest way to reach their goals.

A road game against Daniel Jones and the Colts will be difficult, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Giants come out on top in that one.

They also draw the Saints at home. While the Saints showed significant improvement in the second half of the 2025 season, the Giants should always have a chance to win at home.

If they could also snag wins against the Niners or Jaguars, it would only improve their chances of reaching .500 and making the playoffs for the first time in three years.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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