Here's How the 6-7 Chiefs Can Still Make the Playoffs

A look at what needs to go right for K.C. to snag a postseason berth.

As of this writing, the 6–7 Chiefs have a 11% chance of making the postseason, per the NFL's playoff predictor. / Amy Kontras-Imagn Images

In a turn of events that felt impossible just a few months ago, the Kansas City Chiefs are on the verge of missing the NFL playoffs for the first time in Patrick Mahomes's storied career.

Although their record wasn't totally indicative of their play earlier in the season, things seem to have devolved in recent weeks, with the offense unable to make the big plays when it really matters. In a critical game vs. the Texans last Sunday night, for example, head coach Andy Reid made a costly fourth-and-1 call, while Mahomes threw for zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Even veteran Travis Kelce had a game-changing mistake.

Now at 6–7 on the year, the team's odds of making the postseason are slim; the NFL's playoff predictor has them at 11% with the Week 14 slate now over. But, as is often the case at Arrowhead, things could still end up working out in K.C.'s favor. As things currently stand, here's what needs to happen for the Chiefs to sneak into the 2025 postseason:

1. Chiefs must win out

Chiefs' remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, @ Titans, vs. Broncos, @ Raiders

For starters, K.C. must win all four of its remaining games, which feels doable.

Although the team lost to both the Chargers and the Broncos earlier this year, both of these upcoming games will be at home, which gives the Chiefs an advantage. The two road bouts, meanwhile, are against an abysmal Titans team and a struggling Raiders squad, making for hopefully easy victories. Should they pull it off, K.C.'s playoff chances would increase significantly.

2. Colts must lose at least two of their last four

Colts' remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. 49ers, vs. Jaguars, at Texans

Indianapolis is currently 8-5. The Chiefs will need them to finish no better than 10-7, which means they must lose at least two of their next four. This is certainly a possibility; the remaining contests were losable even before starting quarterback Daniel Jones went down with an Achilles injury, and it seems unlikely that a 3-1 or better finish will happen, even if Philip Rivers steps in. We can't count them out, of course, but a 10-7 overall record (or worse) does feel more likely than not.

3. Chargers must finish last four games 1-3 or worse

Charger's remaining schedule: at Chiefs, at Cowboys, vs. Texans, at Broncos

The Chargers improved to 9-4 after beating the Eagles in Week 14's iteration of Monday Night Football, but they can enjoy just one more win should K.C. hope to snag a berth.

Specifically, L.A. must lose against the Chiefs next week (obviously, considering K.C. winning out is the first domino to fall here), as well as the Broncos in Week 18; this ensures both the Chiefs and the Chargers have the same division record. Moreover, the Chargers must also lose at least one of their games against the Cowboys and the Texans. With that (and assuming L.A. does go 1-1 against Dallas and Houston), both teams would be 10-7 with a 4-2 division record, and the Chiefs would finish ahead of L.A. because of the common games tiebreaker.

Now, could this actually happen? It is a tough schedule for the Chargers, so there's a chance. That said, it's also possible the Broncos decide to rest their starters in Week 18, which means L.A. could walk away from that game with a win, thereby crushing K.C.'s postseason dreams.

Added wrinkles:

As things stand, both the on-the-bubble Dolphins and Ravens are 6-7 right now, as well. That means they could theoretically finish the season at 10-7, too, though such an outcome does seem improbable. The Ravens are @Cincinnati, vs. New England, @ Green Bay and @ Pittsburgh down the stretch, and it's likely they'll lose at least one of those contests. The same goes for the Dolphins, who close out the year @ Pittsburgh, vs. Cincinnati. vs. Tampa Bay and @ New England.

For the sake of argument, though, let's say the Dolphins, Ravens and Chiefs pull it off, so all three teams are 10-7. We can throw the Colts in there, too, for a four-way tie. What would happen then? In that case, K.C. would still be the one to snag the AFC's 7th seed, so long as at least one of the Colts' two losses is to either the Jaguars or the Texans. (Baltimore would win the AFC North and earn a berth that way, though).

The gauntlet begins Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, when the Chiefs will host the Chargers at Arrowhead.

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