Betting The Jaguars: Bye Week Edition
All lines are from BetMGM
Week 8 Recap
Jaguars: -2.5 (-115)✅
Calvin Ridley: o50.5 receiving yards (-110)✅
Jaguars: o20.5 total team points (-130)❌
Philadelphia Eagles: o25.5 total team points (-120)✅
Rashee Rice: o41.5 receiving yards (-110)✅
Overall Record: 23-15 (+10.81 units)
The Jaguars proved to be the much better team overall like I thought and the -2.5 was never really in question. The same goes for Calvin Ridley and his 50.5 receiving line. He finished the day with 83 yards as wide receivers keep torching the Steelers. The one tilt I have here(and it’s a petty one since it was a 4-1 week and the Jags won) is that Brandon McManus totally has the leg to make what probably would’ve been a 58-59-yarder near the end of the game to push the team total over 20.5. Since they were up 10 and there were just under two minutes left in the game it made no sense to risk a missed field goal giving the Steelers the nice field position. I totally get it, but it was such a classic gambling scenario.
Travis Kelce: o78.5 receiving yards (-115)
A.J. Brown: o82.5 receiving yards (-115)
Alvin Kamara: o92.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
With the Jaguars on bye it’s time to relax and enjoy a stress-free Sunday of football. I’m just going to keep it light this week with three bets. I'll be honest, this weekend’s slate STINKS. There are nine games that feature a game total of 41 or lower. That’s absolutely insane for the NFL. It looks like I'm scrolling through the Big Ten odds on a Saturday morning. By my count we are going to see ten backup quarterbacks this week. Oof. Since I’ve been playing fantasy for 15 years and only betting for a few years, my strategy is molded by my fantasy experience as I like to look for who is going to perform well. The low point totals are a sign of bad offense overall this weekend. I don’t want to risk a lot when that’s the case and plus I’m not playing unders (miss me with the criticism here EV nerds, I don’t care).
The Patrick Mahomes flu game went about how you’d expect a guy with the flu trying to play arguably the most mentally challenging position in sports in the freezing cold would go. Yeah, yeah, Michael Jordan but I can’t even function enough to press the right microwave buttons to heat up soup when I’m that sick, let alone playing football while trying to call plays in the huddle and diagnose defenses. All that aside you can’t convince me they come out and lay an egg two weeks in a row. The Chiefs seem to have one random game like that a year so I’m not concerned with them at all. Kelce has looked like his usual self as his knee injury has healed and his workload has also returned with it. He’s averaging just over 9 catches a game over his last four and as the Chiefs look to get back on track I don’t see any reason they won’t flow through Kelce again. The Dolphins rank 24th the league in fantasy points given up against tight ends which is just an added bonus considering Kelce is matchup-proof.
From one superstar to another, it’s time for AJB. A.J. Brown is coming off an NFL record six games in a row of 125 yards or more. He’s truly unstoppable right now and the Cowboys don’t have anyone that can match up with him. I’ll believe someone slows this train down when I see it and the game total is set at 47 so Vegas expects some points. No need to overthink this one at all as sometimes it really is as easy as playing the hottest guy in the league with a line 40 yards lower than what he has made routine lately.
Finally, I like Alvin Kamara o92.5 rushing + receiving yards against the Bears. The Bears are second worst in the league in receiving yards given up to running backs at 56.7 yards per game. Enter Alvin Kamara. Since his return from suspension, he has been a target monster thanks to Dump Off Derek. Chicago is also giving up 100 yards a game on the ground to running backs. Add that up with the little usage the other Saints running backs have seen lately I think Kamara is in for a monster day.
