Why Jaguars-Bills Might Not Be as Dramatic as Expected

The Jacksonville Jaguars are set to take on the Buffalo Bills in one of the most highly anticipated matchups in the first round of the 2025 NFL playoffs. The narratives going into this game have drummed up enough drama to fill an entire soap opera. On paper, these two teams are practically neck-and-neck, with Jacksonville finishing with a 13-4 record and Buffalo at 12-5.

The Bills represent the old guard, with plenty of years of playoff experience on their roster, including the reigning MVP, quarterback Josh Allen. On the other hand, the Jaguars are part of a collective of upstart teams looking to usurp the previous era of the NFL, led by first-year head coach Liam Coen and rising star Trevor Lawrence. Unsurprisingly, many are expecting this one to go down to the wire.

Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL, Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen — Sep 23, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Jaguars might just get this one comfortably

The analysis ahead of the Jacksonville Jaguars' clash with the Buffalo Bills has mostly been along the same lines. Duval holds most of the advantages schematically and statistically, but Josh Allen's heroics can never be counted out, especially in the postseason. However, mythos aside, there's a clear path to the Jaguars winning this one handily at home.

The Bills' run defense might be the most glaring weakness of any team in the playoff field. They allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game and ranked in the bottom three in yards per carry given up. Travis Etienne Jr. and Jacksonville's ground game slowed down in the second half of the season, but they've shown they're plenty capable of gashing teams with the run when needed. ETN had 70+ yards rushing in eight of his 17 games. FanDuel has him at +116 to cross that line against Buffalo.

“I love the Jaguars in this game. I can’t believe they’re not favored.”@BillSimmons is all in on the Jaguars beating the Bills. pic.twitter.com/jAbTPYTeos
— The Ringer (@ringer) January 9, 2026

Part of the reason for the Bills' sustained playoff success during the Josh Allen era has been his ability to take care of the ball. In 13 playoff games, he's only coughed up the ball six times. He didn't have any turnovers in his last two postseason runs. However, he's facing off with a Jaguars' defense that finished second in takeaways this season. If Buffalo has to rely on Allen to play hero ball throughout this one, he could be good for a turnover or two. He's at +100 to throw an interception in Jacksonville.

If the Jaguars can dominate the ground game on both sides of the ball, taking advantage of the Bills' poor run defense while showing off their excellent one, and force Allen to have to play Superman throughout the contest, they should be able to goad him into making some mistakes. That's the path to victory for Jacksonville, especially considering that he wasn't as turnover-averse this season as he was in years past. The line for this game has moved, with the Jaguars favored by 1.5 points at home, but they're listed at +230 to win by a touchdown or more.

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