Betting the Jaguars: Week 11 vs. the Titans
All lines are from BetMGM
Week 10 Recap
Calvin Ridley: o55.5 receiving yards (-115)❌
Trevor Lawrence longest rush: o9.5 yards (-110)❌
Brock Purdy: o.5 interceptions (+105)❌
DK Metcalf: o64.5 receiving yards (-110)✅
Mike Evans: o60.5 receiving yards (-115)✅
Overall Record: 25-21 (+6.58 units)
It was a disaster of a game for the Jaguars. Any bet involving a Jaguars player and an over crashed unless your name is Christian Kirk. Wild, right? The one guy I was looking to avoid turns out to be the ONLY guy to hit an over. I feel absolutely robbed on the Brock Purdy interception bet as his first touchdown pass Sunday was a terrible decision and throw that should’ve been picked. Metcalf and Evans saved the week for me thankfully.
Christian Kirk longest reception: o21.5 yards (-120)
Calvin Ridley longest reception: o20.5 yards (-120)
Will Levis: o.5 interception (-145)
Okay, this one feels a little weird but I also love it. The Jaguars desperately need a bounce-back performance from the offense after last week's dud. Doug Pederson mentioned in his press conference this week that they need to be more conscious of taking shots downfield so enter my first two bets. The Titans have a drop back EPA/Play of .136 which is fifth worst in the league. Their drop back success rate is 49.3% and that is tied for third worst in the league.
Bottom line is this pass defense isn’t great. Christian Kirk has a reception longer than 21 yards every game this season except week one, a game where he caught one pass. The Jaguars have made obvious attempts all season to push the ball a few times a game to Kirk whether it’s a deep over across the field or a play action shot and it has been working. In fact, his longest catch each week since week one has been 26 yards or more. He has now hit this prop in eight straight games and there’s no need to back away now in a plus matchup.
If you listened to my podcast this week, I teased this play when going over some props for the week. I just can’t trust Calvin Ridley overall but I think I can trust him here. Take away the recency bias and this is a good bet. Ridley has a reception of 21 yards or more in six out of nine games. Taking away the bias here is huge because he’s missed this prop in three out of his last four games. However, the Titans just don’t have the manpower to take man up with Ridley and all it takes is one play. I feel really good about both guys in this spot.
Like last week, I’m going after the opposing quarterback. The Jaguars defense overall has done a good job of stopping the run on early downs, forcing 3rd and longs, and forcing opposing quarterbacks into bad decisions. They should’ve had Purdy this week and I think they get one out of Levs this week. He’s thrown an interception in each of his games since his huge debut and he looked pretty bad last week against a Tampa Bay team that gives up the second most passing yards per game with 266.9. This one is set at -145 so the return isn’t quite as much but it also means they also think this one is pretty likely. I think the defense gets back on track this week and an interception is part of that.
Other Bets
Tyreek Hill: o90.5 receiving yards (-115)
Kyler Murray: o238.5 passing yards (-115)
Tyreek Hill continues his quest for 2,000 receiving yards against the Raiders this week and I’m sending thoughts and prayers to the Raiders secondary. Hill has fallen short of the 90.5 number four times. Three of them in the Dolphins losses and the other to the Patriots. We all know the narrative about the Dolphins against good teams and the good news here is the Raiders are not a good team. The Patriots are the only team to lose to the Dolphins and hold Tyreek below his number and that’s not entirely surprising out of a Patriots team at all. There’s not a chance the Raiders are winning this game and they also aren’t stopping Tyreek. He also crossed this number in every game played in Miami with his lowest being 112 yards. I have little doubts about Hill this week.
Man is it great to have Kyler playing football again. He looked like his old self for the most part and whipped K1 when he needed him most on an absolutely insane 13-yard scramble on 3rd and 10 during his game-winning field goal drive. On Call of Duty release weekend nonetheless leaving the owners of the most unoriginal joke on Twitter in shambles. He hit this number against a tough Falcons pass defense and now gets the Texans who give up 246.4 passing yards a game and they have allowed 279+ yards five times. Their offense is on fire and their last two games have been barn burners. Even if they crush the Cardinals, Kyler should get a ton of garbage time as they will want to get him all the reps they can coming off the knee injury. Kyler is back.
