Betting the Jaguars: Week 4
Week 3 Recap
Calvin Ridley: o69.5 receiving yards (-115)❌
Travis Etienne longest rush: o15.5 yards (-125)✅
Tank Dell: o35.5 receiving yards (-120)✅
DJ Moore: o43.5 receiving yards (-110) ✅
Keenan Allen: o68.5 receiving yards (-120) ✅
Overall Record 9-7 +7.97 units
Big bounceback week in the betting department but unfortunately not in the real-life football department. I was a Calvin Ridley case of the dropsies from a perfect week. Luck however was in my favor as Etienne hit his longest rush prop with a rush of 16 yards in the third quarter. Thanks to a big play to Tank Dell on the Texans second drive of the game I never had to sweat that pick. DJ Moore had his prop hit in the first half and Keenan Allen only tripled up his yardage prop. What a weekend!
Travis Etienne: o91.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
Evan Engram: o46.5 receiving yards (-110)
Christian Kirk: o4.5 receptions (-115)
After looking like the lone bright spot on offense this week I have zero doubt we see another healthy dose of Travis Etienne this Sunday vs the Falcons. He has crossed this yardage line in 2 out of 3 games so far this season with the one miss coming against a Chiefs defense that has turned out to be way better than expected. The Jaguars clearly don’t trust Tank Bigsby yet to handle much work which means another 20+ touch day for Etienne. His explosiveness jumps off the screen and I look forward to him absolutely tearing up Andy’s room.
The next two bets both stem from the fact that the Jaguars offense has looked the most fluid and effective when getting Evan Engram and Christian Kirk involved. Engram is 3/3 on this prop for the year, has seen 5+ targets every week, Zay Jones looks like he won’t play, and he has been the most reliable target so far for Trevor Lawrence. High confidence here. Calvin Ridley gets his revenge game but he has a tough matchup vs AJ Terrell. I’m sure Calvin will get his but I think this funnels some extra targets to Engram and Kirk. That combined with Jones likely absence leads me to believe Kirk catches at least 5 balls.
Other Bets
Jerome Ford: o65.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110)
Courtland Sutton: o55.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Ravens defense just got absolutely diced by Zack Moss vs the Colts last weekend and that was without the threat of Anthony Richardson running and Joe Mixon had 95 combined yards in week 2 in a game where the Bengals offense wasn’t good overall. After losing Nick Chubb for the year, the Browns have handed the reigns over to Jerome Ford and he has not disappointed. He stepped in and had 131 scrimmage yards against the Steelers after Chubb went down.
Last week vs an extremely stingy Titans run defense he only managed 18 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards. The Titans are giving up just under 70 rushing yards a game which is very impressive for a team who isn’t blowing the opposition out of the water and forcing them to pass so I don’t put a ton of stock into that performance. Expect Ford to get things rolling again at home vs the Ravens.
The Bears defense is a mess, their secondary is a mess, and their secondary is also super banged up. I don’t expect this to be a pretty game but I feel great about Courtland Sutton reaching 56 yards. His targets have increased weekly even with Jerry Juedy’s return and it looks like he has Russell Wilson’s trust currently.
He rarely comes off the field for the Broncos and the Bears are giving up 285 passing yards a game on the year and they have played Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield. This is not a sexy play by any means but I’m looking to take advantage of the Bears secondary and a low yardage line.
