Betting The Jaguars: Week 6
All lines are from BetMGM
Week 5 Recap
Christian Kirk: o54.5 receiving yards (-115)✅
Trevor Lawrence: o16.5 rushing yards (-120)✅
Josh Allen: o1.5 passing touchdowns (-145)✅
Travis Kelce: o77.5 receiving yards (-120)❌
Tank Dell: o41.5 receiving yards (-115)✅
Overall Record: 15-11 (+8 units)
Another positive week and a Jaguars game sweep. Crazy enough, Josh Allen was the prop that gave me the biggest sweat and to be honest I would’ve been totally fine had he missed. Got a hit on Tank Dell as he outproduced Nico Collins like I thought. With A.J. Terrell on the field, it may seem like slot receiver yardage props vs the Falcons may be something to attack moving forward. Travis Kelce gave us a run but fell short by 11 yards. I’m sure the sprained ankle didn’t help his cause but it is what it is.
Jaguars Bets
Trevor Lawrence: o252.5 passing yards (-115)
Calvin Ridley: o55.5 receiving yards (-120)
Jaguars -4: (-110)
If you read my betting column for week one, I was extremely heavy on Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley due to Gus Bradley’s bend and don’t break defense and the Colts inexperienced corners. That was dead on and I don’t see any reason that is going to change.
Ridley was able to rack up 100 yards against them the first time out and after watching this defense give up multiple huge performances to opposing WR1’s I’m going right back. The Lawrence and Ridley connection looked the best it has all season against the Bills and if their chemistry Sunday was any indication of things to come I worry for the Colts.
I know Christian Kirk has been awesome this year as well, but I don’t think his line should be higher than Calvin’s as he tends to do his damage against more man coverage. The Colts play a ton of zone which Ridley exposed already and Gus Bradley isn’t one to suddenly change things up scheme-wise. Ridley at 55.5 seems like a no-brainer to me. I also don’t need to reiterate how amazing Lawrence was this weekend. He may have played the best game of his career in a huge spotlight. The Jaguars are only four-point favorites so Vegas expects a decent game. I’m not sure why they only have Lawrence at 252.5 yards. Not my problem. I’ll take the bet.
I haven’t touched a spread bet all season in this column but it’s time. Let’s get the obvious out of the way as the Colts haven’t won in Duval since 2014. The Jaguars defense is playing fantastic football right now and I don’t think they have any issues against Gardner Minshew. They did a great job overall of containing Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the pocket which should be a much easier task against Minshew.
I think if you take away his ability to make out of structure plays you will create problems for him. The Colts running game looks way less intimidating without Anthony Richardson even with the return of Johnathon Taylor. On the flip side, The Jaguars run defense has been excellent this year. With how the passing game looked last week, the recent defensive performance, and the Colts' Duval curse look for the Jaguars to cover four points.
Other Bets
Zay Flowers: o54.5 receiving yards (-115)
Desmond Ridder: o204.5 passing yards (-115)
When the Jaguars aren’t involved, I love the London games. Football all day? Sign me up. So I’m picking Zay Flowers o54.5 receiving yards for the Sunday morning London game. The Titans are extremely stout against the run which has left them extremely vulnerable in the back end of the defense. Opposing receivers have found success against them and after a rough Ravens offensive performance (outside of Lamar Jackson) I think they have a bounce-back game. I love Zay Flowers as a player. He’s such a fluid athlete and an exceptional route runner he has an easy time getting himself open. He has hit this prop in four out of five weeks while clearly establishing himself as the top receiving option behind Mark Andrews. Fire up Flowers here.
I honestly feel a little gross typing this up but this play has everything to do with the Commanders defense and nothing to do with Spencer Ridder. The Commanders have started out 2-0 and have lost three straight. They’ve given up 33+ points four weeks in a row with two of those games vs. the Broncos and the Bears. They rank 26th in defensive DVOA and are currently giving up 251 passing yards a game (including week one where Josh Dobbs only threw for 132 yards).
Combine that with Ridder’s extremely low line of 204.5 yards, I feel good about Ridder on Sunday. He had a much-needed bounce-back game against the Texans and plays way better at home where he’s 5-0 and averages 215 passing yards a game. Like I said, I feel sort of crazy doing this but Jack Del Rio isn’t improving that defense and 204.5 yards is just extremely low. I will wear the egg on my face with pride when this crashes.
