Betting the Jaguars: Week 8 vs. the Steelers
All lines are from BetMGM
Week 7 Recap
Christian Kirk: o51.5 receiving yards (-130) ✅
Christin Kirk: o4.5 receptions (-135) ✅
Overall Record: 19-14 (+8.29 units)
Kirk had his receptions locked up but it took his insane catch and run late in the fourth quarter to seal the game and his yardage prop. Given the short prep week and Trevor Lawrence’s injury keeping things murky I’m glad I decided to keep it simple last week. It was a weird game(which one hasn’t been this year) and despite leading the way again Kirk still made us sweat. Time for week 8.
Jaguars -2.5: -115
Calvin Ridley: o50.5 receiving yards (-110)
Jaguars o20.5 total team points (-130)
First things first, I feel really solid about the Jaguars winning this game. I think they are a way better team overall than the Steelers and they seem like they are starting to find their form. Winners of four straight games, the Jags have been put to the test in so many different ways and have answered the call every time. They are putting up points while somehow leaving what seems to be double-digit points on the field weekly.
The defense has been far better than any of us could’ve hoped for(looking at you, George)as they currently rank fourth in defensive DVOA. Stopping the run is the key for the Jaguars and they don’t exactly have a huge threat this week in that department against Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Early down success has been huge for them as you better hope (Hi, George) you find yourself in manageable third down situations or you’re in for a long day.
On the other side, the Steelers have yet to gain more yardage than their opponent. The fact they have stumbled their way to a winning record is miraculous and they are due for some hard regression. Kenny Pickett has not taken the leap you want out of a second year quarterback, their defense isn’t the scare we’re used to outside of T.J. Watt, and they still employ Matt Canada. I think the Jaguars get a fairly easy victory on Sunday and feel good about them holding onto a three point lead.
I really like Calvin Ridley this week. The overreaction to his last few games is pretty crazy and unwarranted. Sure, maybe the fantasy community(myself included) overestimated his role in this offense but it doesn’t mean he’s dead. It would be really helpful to Calvin for Zay Jones to get back on the field but I think we see another week without Jones giving him the bye to heal up. Jones is another legitimate threat on the outside for the offense opening up room for Ridley. Regardless, I think Ridley has a nice game. Take a look at outside receiver performances so far against the Steelers:
Brandon Aiyuk: 8 rec/129 yards/2 tds
Amari Cooper: 7/90/0
Devante Adams: 13/172/2
Jakobi Meyers: 7/85/0
Nico Collins: 7/168/2
Zay Flowers: 5/73/0 (drops kept him from 100-yard game)
Puka Nacua: 8/154/0
To be honest I’m not sure how many of Adams’ snaps came out of slot but regardless Meyers did fine. The point stands. Seeing that list gives me a lot of confidence in a Ridley bounceback week as he is far more talented than most of that list. I know he’s only topped 50 yards twice(how?!) but I feel good on this one.
Given everything I’ve already said I don’t think the Jaguars have a huge issue getting to 21 points. It’s a mark they have crossed in all five of their victories and since I think they handle this one it makes perfect sense to think they score at least 21 points. I thought this line would be around 23.5 or 24.5 so I’ll happily jump on here even if it is juiced down to -130.
Other Bets
Philadelphia Eagles: o25.5 total team points (-120)
Rashee Rice: o41.5 receiving yards (-110)
Back in Week 4, the Eagles hung 34 points on the less-than-stellar Commanders defense. They get them again this week and I’m shocked to see their line for total team points at 25.5. I was legitimately surprised to see that the Eagles have only scored 26 or more points three times on the year but to be fair they have scored 25 on the dot twice. Their offense, like the Jaguars, looks like things are starting to fall in place and the fact that A.J. Brown looks like no single man can stop him gives me huge confidence in the Eagles as a team. They have three receiving options that can beat you on any given day and can strike a huge play at any given moment. Look for the Eagles to storm into the capital of Washington's unit in an attempt to take over Jack Del Rio’s defense.
I just wrote about Rashee Rice in my fantasy stock article earlier this week. His involvement in the passing game continues to grow and his chemistry with Patrick Mahomes is developing before our eyes. In the three games where he has played 49% of the offensive snaps or more he has reached 59 yards. He just saw 59% of the snaps last week and I don’t see that regressing. On top of that, he's being targeted on over 30% of his routes so the targets continue to come with the usage. I firmly believe he has proven to be the second option in the Chiefs passing game and as they get rolling it looks like going over 41.5 yards should be a breeze for Rice taking on a Broncos defense that gives up points by the bunches.
