Recent NFL History Gives Jaguars 4 Reasons for 2025 Optimism

Schedule-reveal week in the NFL has become a popular exercise in predicting win totals for each team. But, as your father used to say, don’t believe everything you read in the papers.

The paper prognosticators in May of 2024 said the Jaguars would finish with at least eight wins. They wound up 4-13, then replaced their coaching staff and front office and drafted Travis Hunter.

Hunter isn’t the only reason for hope in Duval County. Four teams last season – the Broncos, Chargers, Vikings and Commanders – reached the playoffs after missing the postseason in 2023. For 35 consecutive seasons (1990-2024), at least four clubs have secured playoff berths after failing to reach the postseason the prior year.

Here’s what three random outlets said about Denver, the L.A. Chargers, Minnesota and Washington a year ago, compared to what actually happened.

DENVER (What actually happened: 10-7, AFC wild card, No. 7 seed, lost at Buffalo in first round). May 2024 win predictions: 7.1 (Mason Cameron, Pro Football Focus), 5.7 (Cynthia Frelund, NFL.com), 6.0 (Autin Mock, The Athletic).

“The Broncos' first five opponents -- all either known for their defenses or for having defensive-minded head coaches -- are far from the ideal matchups for a rookie QB,” Frelund wrote last year (the Broncos were 3-2 in those games). “But maybe it's a positive thing that Bo Nix, should Sean Payton name him the starter, won't know anything else for comparison? At Seattle, against Pittsburgh, at Tampa, at the Jets, versus Vegas -- talk about a warm welcome to the NFL.”

L.A. CHARGERS (What actually happened: 11-6, AFC wild card, No. 5 seed, lost at Houston in first round). May 2024 win predictions: 8.4 (Mason Cameron, Pro Football Focus), 8.2 (Cynthia Frelund, NFL.com), 8.9 (Autin Mock, The Athletic).

“Nine wins feels about right for the Chargers,” wrote Daniel Popper, the team’s beat writer for The Athletic, wrote before the 2024 season. “I had them at 10 in my prediction in May. Consider the extra game the Jim Harbaugh bump. The players are bought in. Harbaugh has led dramatic turnarounds in all of his head-coaching stops — San Diego University, Stanford, the San Francisco 49ers and Michigan. I believe he will have the same impact in Los Angeles. And, of course, the Chargers still have one of the best quarterbacks in football in Justin Herbert, who looked great in practice last week after returning from his plantar fascia injury.”

MINNESOTA (What actually happened: 14-3, NFC wild card, No. 5 seed, lost at L.A. Rams in first round). May 2024 win predictions: 7.7 (Mason Cameron, Pro Football Focus), 7.2 (Cynthia Frelund, NFL.com), 6.8 (Autin Mock, The Athletic).

“Minnesota will abruptly face its most challenging four-game stretch of the year one week after the season kicks off,” Frelund wrote last year before Sam Darnold and the Vikings opened the year 5-0. “In the final three weeks of September, the Vikings will host the 49ers and Texans, then hit the road for a Lambeau Field showdown with the Packers. In the opening week of October, Minnesota heads to London for its international tilt against the Jets.”

WASHINGTON (What actually happpened: 12-5, NFC wild card, No. 6 seed, advanced to NFC Championship Game). May 2024 win predictions: 7.2 (Mason Cameron, Pro Football Focus), 7.2 (Cynthia Frelund, NFL.com), 5.9 (Autin Mock, The Athletic).

“The broad oddsmakers set the win total at 6.5, a number that many Jayden Daniels believers find shockingly low,” wrote Ben Standig, The Athletic Commanders beat writer last year. “Mock’s model went even lower with a league-worst 5.9 wins.

“What the projections cannot easily consider is the Commanders’ renewed competitive spirit under coach Dan Quinn. Daniels’ upside and more weekly consistency should push Washington above Mock’s number, but it might take injury and bounce-of-the-ball luck (and better-than-expected CB and OT play) to reach seven wins or sniff .500.”

While Jacksonville didn’t finish last in the AFC South – they were one game ahead of Tennessee --- the Jaguars can still find hope in another NFL fact. Last year, the Vikings, Chargers and Commanders each clinched postseason tickets after finishing last in their divisions in 2023. In 26 of the past 29 seasons (1996-2024), at least one NFL club team has made the postseason the year after finishing in the division cellar.

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