Analysts Have Interesting Reason for Faith in Jaguars

Consistency is critical for Trevor Lawrence in returning Jacksonville Jaguars to playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Grant Udinski talks near quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) during the second mandatory minicamp at Miller Electric Center Wednesday, June 11, 2025 in Jacksonville, Fla. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The last time Trevor Lawrence had a new Jaguars head coach, he led the team on a storybook journey that ended in the divisional round of the playoffs. Since then, Lawrence has struggled in a big way.

Moving that needle back to its 2022 level and keeping it there is how Jacksonville will surpass expectations this year, according to 33rd Team analyst Steve Palazzolo.

“I think Lawrence absolutely can get there,” he said last week on the Drop the Mic podcast, “but consistency is a legitimate concern.”

While that’s a legitimate concern, Lawrence clearly has a legitimate ceiling. He proved he could reach an elite level from Weeks 9-18 of that 2022 campaign. Over that stretch, the Jaguars were 7-2 – including five straight wins to end the year and catapult Jacksonville into the playoffs – and Lawrence owned the NFL’s third-best passer rating (90.3), trailing only Joe Burrow (92.7) and Lamar Jackson (90.5). Even the eventual Super Bowl MVP, Patrick Mahomes (89.8), had a lower number over those weeks.

Over a longer stretch, from Week 9 of 2022 through Week 12 of 2023, Lawrence led Jacksonville to a 15-5 record and posted a 97.7 passer rating.

“We saw a period of time,” Palazzolo said, “starting at the back end of his sophomore year, it was definitely the best stretch of his career. And there were four or five games in there that were really impressive.”

Perhaps most impressive was how quickly Lawrence picked up the Doug Pederson offense. If he can adapt to Liam Coen’s new playbook in similar fashion, just as Baker Mayfield did for the Buccaneers last year, there’s reason to believe the Jaguars could easily surpass 7.5 wins.

“We've got some data points here that Liam's elevating quarterbacks,” co-host Sam Monson added, “getting the most out of quarterbacks, which I think gives an opportunity for Trevor Lawrence to maybe have his best season.”

And getting his best season means great production from wide receivers Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter, a much better duo than Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in 2022.

But as good as Lawrence was over that 2022-23 stretch, he’s been equally disappointing since. He’s just 2-15 over his last 17 starts with an 83.8 rating.

The best source for Duval news is X (Twitter). Follow both @JaguarsOnSI and @_John_Shipley and never miss breaking Jaguars stories.

Plus, remember the Facebook page -- a great way to connect with fans all over the globe -- by clicking here.