5 Reasons the Jaguars Will Dismantle the Colts in 2026

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Jacksonville Jaguars will look to win their second consecutive AFC South title in 2026; if they do, it will be the first time they have ever done so. To do that, they will need to get past a few rivals.

We already outlined a few reasons why we think the Jaguars do not need to worry about the Tennessee Titans this season, and now we turn our focus to the next AFC South foe: the Indianapolis Colts, who will need a few lucky breaks to match the 2026 Jaguars.

The Jacksonville Curse

No matter what team Chris Ballard fields each season, he has yet to build a Colts team that can win inside the confines of Jacksonville. The Colts have not defeated the Jaguars in Duval since 2014, when Chad Henne and Andrew Luck started the game at quarterback and a rookie Blake Bortles made his debut. I just turned 30, and I was not even a high school senior the last time the Colts won in Jacksonville. It is a real thing that seems to never really go away for them.

With the Colts' brass clearly on the hot seat this offseason, do I think they are suddenly going to find clarity on why they have been unable to win in Jacksonville no matter the stakes or circumstances? Not really. The Colts didn't make any significant swings this offseason to improve from a team that got swept by the Jaguars a year ago, including a blowout loss in Jacksonville.

The Colts are a franchise that badly needs fresh ideas, especially when it comes to wining at Everbank Stadium. They didn't get those this offseason, though, and it now remains to be seen exactly when they will.

Shane Steichen Hasn't Figured Out the Jaguars

shane steichew — Dec 7, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA;Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen leaves the field after a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Travis Register-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Shane Steichen era for the Colts has been ... fine? Forgetable? Eh? Any of these likely work for a head coach who has yet to sniff the playoffs, but who never really has a bad team. Steichen seems like a just around average NFL head coach (albeit a strong offensive play-caller and schemer), and his struggles against the Jaguars since he has taken over are hard to ignore.

Steichen is 1-5 against the Jaguars and has lost games by 17 points twice and another game by 10 points. He has two close losses against the Jaguars, and his lone winning performance came in Week 18 against the Mac Jones-led Jaguars in 2024. Not only was that Jaguars team without Trevor Lawrence, in the final week of the Doug Pederson era, and particularly rudderless that year, but the Colts could not even beat them in regulation -- they won 26-23 in overtime.

Steichen will probably have to make the playoffs to keep his job. If he can't do that, then his lack of success against the Jaguars over the course of his Colts tenure will be a big reason why he will be looking for work.

The Quarterback Situation

daniel jone — Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones speaks ahead of the team’s veterans minicamp Tuesday, June 9, 2026, at the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center in Indianapolis. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

For my money, the Colts not only have one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL, but they have also squandered so many chances to actually right the ship. Daniel Jones played well to start the 2025 season, but he was always going to come crashing back down to Earth. He did, and then later got injured, and he is coming back as their best option this season despite his injury. Why they didn't add Kyler Murray is beyond me.

Then there is the backup spot. Anthony Richardson was a top-5 pick, but he badly needs a change of scenery to carve out an NFL career. It seems inevitable that he will lose the backup job to Riley Leonard, whom the Colts did not trust over a geriatric Philip Rivers a year ago. The Colts fumbled last year's quarterback situation on a comical scale, and the room did not even get any better this offseason.

The Aging of the Sauce Gardner Trade

It is still hard to believe the deal the Colts made for Sauce Gardner. He has been amongst the NFL's best cornerbacks in most metrics over the course of his career, but he is not exactly a playmaker. He has three interceptions in his entire career, including one in his last couple dozen starts. Good player, but the Jaguars have three-to-four legit wide receivers. If he shuts down one, they can just pick on someone else. Seems like an odd piece to the puzzle to trade two first round picks for.

As a result of the Gadner trade, the Colts have one of the NFL's more middling rosters and could not really add to it with a top pick. Multiple first-round picks are for Jalen Ramsey, Myles Garrett, these types of players. It should not be the kind of deal you make for a good cover man who will rarely make a play that actually tilts the impact of the game.

Tyler Warren is a Little Fake!

The Colts certainly have an elite running back in Jonathan Taylor, and Alec Pierce has some real talent. They also might have the most overrated tight end by a country mile in the NFL in Tyler Warren, who showed last year that he was a tier or two below fellow rookie tight end and genuine do-it-all pass-catcher Colston Loveland.

Warren made some impressive plays with the ball in his hands, but a staggering amount of his production came during the Colts' red-hot start. When looking at how he got that production, a lot of it came on schemed up plays in which he was not really having to create many oppurtunities for himself. Add in the fact that he is an average-to-below average run blocker, and Warren does not seem like the difference-maker people were making him out to be.

The Jaguars have the best tight end in the AFC South in Brenton Strange, and Warren seems closer to a cheap imitation than he does to legit competition for that claim.

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