Bills' Offense Holds One Crucial Advantage Jaguars Must Plan For

The Jacksonville Jaguars are in for a hell of a showdown on Sunday. Despite winning eight straight games to close the 2025 NFL season with a 13-4 record and the AFC South crown, they were rewarded for their efforts with a first-round matchup against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. The Bills might not be the juggernauts they've been in years past, but any team quarterbacked by a reigning MVP is a dangerous threat.

Jacksonville's defense matches up well with Buffalo's offense on paper, though. It's well-equipped to take away what the Bills do best on the attack: run the ball. Allen and James Cook formed the NFL's leading rushing attack in yards per game this season. They also ranked second in yards per carry. However, the Jaguars' D was No. 1 in both yards allowed per game and per attempt on the ground.

Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL, Buffalo Bills, Dalton Kincaid — Sep 23, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) makes a touchdown catch against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Jaguars will have to limit the Bills' tight ends

Outside of Josh Allen and James Cook, the Buffalo Bills' offense is pretty lackluster. Keon Coleman's disappointments as their next heir apparent at wideout have led to him becoming a meme, courtesy of the great Cam Newton. Khalil Shakir has been inexplicably reduced to a gadget guy. Buffalo's wide receiver room has been so middling that they've had to turn to 12-year veteran Brandin Cooks to stretch the field vertically.

If the Jacksonville Jaguars can keep Josh Allen in the pocket and prevent him from turning the game into a round of backyard football, they should be able to keep a lid on the passing game. That is, if they can take away Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Jacksonville has struggled against receiving tight ends all year, having given up the 10th-most yards to that position. Head Coach Liam Coen spoke on the unique challenge that Kincaid and Knox will present to his defense:

When Josh Allen threw to Dalton Kincaid in 2025, his QB Rating was 149.2.

There was no other pass-catcher with a higher number than this.

How important is a health Dalton Kincaid in the playoffs?⁰⁰#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/ucejIxW6aO
— Put Steve Tasker in the Hall of Fame (@HOFSteveTasker) January 7, 2026

"Both Kincaid and Knox, very good football players. Great in the pass, they work their tails off in the run game, and they do a nice job of putting them in advantageous matchups in the run game. And they’ll get heavy, they'll go jumbo but still have those tight ends out there. So now you've got bigger people on the grass defensively, but they like to maybe spread it out and throw it. So, they do a nice job of creating matchups for the tight ends, and they're good players. There's a trust level you can tell between Josh and those guys."

"But I do think that some of where we're at now with Antonio [Johnson] and with some of these different packages can help us continue to defend bigger sets that way, but still have athleticism on the grass and be able to feel comfortable about stopping the run still. That's the predicament that they put you in when you play with a lot of tight ends, and you go heavier. Well, now, yeah, you're better against the run, but you're more susceptible against the pass. Vice versa, you play little against heavy people, big people. Now, you're susceptible against the run. So that’s why you do it."

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