Genius of Jaguars' Perceived Offseason Blunder Will Be Clear This Summer

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Jacksonville Jaguars' offseason was about different values than past March and April's in Duval.

The Jaguars have spent big money in free agency in nearly every offseason of the decade sans 2023, and this included the Jaguars signing double-digit free agents in 2025. This time around, though, the Jaguars went a different route and opted to play the compensatory draft pick by letting former stars Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd leave in free agency.

The Etienne decision in particular has drawn a bit of attention, especially after he had a career season in 2025 and made some of the biggest and most important plays of the Jaguars' season. But while some may perceive letting Etienne walk as a blunder in June, the reality will soon be clear that this was closer to being a calculated move on the Jaguars' part.

travis etienn — Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) scores a rushing touchdown during the second quarter of an NFL football game at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Jaguars' Cunning Move

Etienne signed a four-year, $48 million deal with the New Orleans Saints that includes $24 million in guranteed money. This makes Etienne one of the highest-paid running backs in the entire NFL, making it clear that it would have taken a similar commitment for the Jaguars to retain Etienne after his fifth season.

Tagging Etienne would have come at a $14.293 million price tag, a significant one-year figure considerig the only running back who makes more than that on an annual basis is Saquon Barkley. At the end of the day, keeping Etienne would have required a significant allocation of resources no matter what manner the Jaguars moved forward with.

Letting Etienne walk means the Jaguars would be losing 1,399 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns (on 296 touches) from a 13-4 team, which is of course a sizeable chunk of production. But with that said, Etienne's individual success did not equate to success for the Jaguars' running game as a whole down the stretch.

Whether that had more to do with the offensive line or the Jaguars' shift to a pass-first offense is worth debating, but it is fair to wonder if running back a running game that ranked No. 19 in EPA/Play and No. 26 in success rate would have made sense at such a high price tag. As such, it is not hard to foresee the Jaguars' running game being more successful as a whole in 2026, even if no running back on the roster hits the numbers Etienne did a year ago.

In replacing Etienne, the Jaguars are going with two cost-controlled options whose combined total contract values are just over $15 million -- a fraction of Etienne's deal with the Saints. It is with this duo that the Jaguars will hope to reshape a running game that has also added a new running game coordinator in long-time Liam Coen lieutenant Brian Picucci.

brian piccuc — Jaguars run game coordinator Brian Picucci runs a drill with center Robert Hainsey (73) during the Jaguars’ fourth OTA of the year, Monday June 1, 2026 at the Miller Electric Center in Jacksonville, Fla. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union] | Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Speaking at the owners meetings in March, Coen expressed a similar sentiment -- that the running game can, and should, be better for the Jaguars in 2026 after it stagnated down the stretch a year ago.

"I look personally at rushing yards over expected and yards after contact is what I give a crap about personally. Because it's like, what are you doing outside of what we're blocking? And what does that look like? Because I can't coach that," Coen said in March. "Guys that get more than what's there, I can't coach that. The guys that break tackles at a high level, whether it's via Reggie Bush, whether it's with stiff arms, jumping over them, running through them, I don't care how you do it, I just care that you do it, because I can't coach it.

"And so, when you have and do things that I can't coach on a consistent level, to me that's important for players, because it's like, I can't coach you to do that. If the run is blocked for eight yards and we get eight yards, well, it's kind of like, I need more, I want to see more. So, yeah, we may not get every single aspect of everything TJ [RB Travis Etienne Jr.] was able to do for us in every single way in run, pass, protection, whatever it is, but I’ve got to believe we can run the ball effectively next year with the guys that we have.”

liam coe — Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen talks after the Jaguars final Organized Team Activity on Monday, June 15, 2026 at the Miller Electric Center in Jacksonville, Fla. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union] | Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Looking at what this running back trio did a year ago, it is not hard to make the case that Rodriguez and Tuten could be better ultimate fits for the Jaguars' running game than what they leaned on a year ago. Even if neither establishes themselves as a workhorse the way Etienne did, they likely just have to be efficient ball-carriers to help lift what should be a potent Jaguars passing attack.

With data from NFL Next Gen Stats, looking at the three running backs from a year ago certainly paints the picture that, as long as Tuten takes a step forward in his sophomore season, the Jaguars do have a pair of rushers who can meet Coen's expectations. Tuten had a strong offseason program and drew praise from Coen, too.

Player	EPA/Rush	Success Rate	Yards After Contact/Att	Rushing Yards Over Expected/Att
Travis Etienne	-0.10	36.2%	3.3	+0.2
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	+3.5	45.5%	4.0	+0.7
Bhayshul Tuten	-0.105	47.0%	3.6	-0.2

It still remains to be seen exactly how the carries split between the duo, a question that received zero clarity during the offseason program as Chris Rodriguez Jr. missed each practice. Coen said during minicamp that Rodriguez will be back on the field in training camp, which begins late next month, which is a good sign for the Jaguars and their hopes for a renewed running game.

Will either Tuten or Rodriguez do enough to earn Pro Bowl honors or one day the kind of contract that Etienne just got from the Saints? That is a question that won't be answered for some time, but it also feels like the wrong one to ask. The Jaguars do not need Tuten and Rodriguez to be stars in 2026 for this decision to pay off.

If the Jaguars' running game improves the way they believe it will, it will be because of Tuten and Rodriguez. Look for them to start establishing that this summer.

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