What Texans' Win Over Chargers Means for Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars have maintained their AFC South lead for a month now, but the race is far from finished.

Nov 9, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) stands on the sideline during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars took the lead in the AFC South division back in Week 13 with their win over the Tennessee Titans. At that point, they were tied with the Indianapolis Colts at 8-4, but held the "common opponents" tiebreaker over Indy. Then, they beat the Colts head-to-head the next week to take sole possession of the best record in the division.

They've since maintained their spot atop the AFC South for a full month. However, the race is far from finished. The Houston Texans got a crucial win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday night to move to 11-5 on the season. That victory ensured that they still have a chance to claim the division this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (3) celebrates his touchdown with quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) and wide receiver Austin Trammell (81) during the first quarter of an NFL football game at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jaguars have to beat the Colts

The Houston Texans have just one game left on their schedule: a matchup with the Indianapolis Colts in the regular-season finale. Winning that one could mean ripping the AFC South crown away from the Jacksonville Jaguars in the last week of the campaign. But Head Coach Liam Coen's team still controls its own destiny for the division.

If the Jags lose to the Colts this week, the Texans will overtake them in the standings by beating Indy in the finale, even if Jacksonville wins against the Tennessee Titans. That makes this upcoming bout a must-win for Coen and his team. With Houston's victory, Indianapolis has officially been eliminated from playoff contention. That could make it a little easier for the Jaguars to sweep them in the season series.

Nov 9, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) attempts a pass as Houston Texans defensive end Dylan Horton (92) defends during the game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Jaguars and Texans on a collision course

Not only did the Texans keep themselves alive in the AFC South race, but they also staved off the Los Angeles Chargers for the sixth seed. If the rest of the schedule goes chalk, with the favorites winning all of the remaining games, Jacksonville will host Houston for Wild Card Weekend in the 3-6 matchup. The bracket can still shake up before the start of the postseason, though.

If the Chargers can beat the Denver Broncos in the finale, they'll surpass them in the standings and move to three, bump Denver down into a Wild Card spot, and allow the Jaguars to climb to two, given that they beat the Colts this Sunday and the Titans in Week 18. In fact, it's still possible for Jacksonville to move up to No. 1 and capture the first-round bye, but it would take the New England Patriots losing to the New York Jets or the Miami Dolphins, and LA beating Denver.

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