Anonymous Executive Predicts Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence's Deal Won't Pass Joe Burrow's

Will Trevor Lawrence pass Joe Burrow as the NFL's top paid quarterback per year?

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) leads his team onto the field before a regular season NFL football matchup Monday, Dec. 4, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Cincinnati Bengals defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-31 in overtime. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA

The question of whether the Jacksonville Jaguars make Trevor Lawrence one of the highest-paid quarterbacks is one of when, not if.

Lawrence, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, has led the Jaguars to back-to-back winning seasons and is still just 24. There is virtually no chance the Jaguars don't attempt to lock Lawrence up for the long-term, and all indications are they will do it sooner rather than later.

But what exactly will that deal look like? In the context of recent quarterback deals such as Jared Goff's, Joe Burrow's, Justin Herbert's, and Lamar Jackson's, it seems like the Lawrence deal will easily pass $50 million.

In a guess on Lawrence's ultimate final per-year figure, one NFL front office executive told ESPN they expect it to be between $53-$55 million -- among the most in NFL history.

One NFL front office executive not affiliated with the Jaguars told ESPN they expect Lawrence's extension to have an average annual salary just ahead of Goff's $53 million, but not ahead of Burrow's $55 million. As for the structure of the deal, it should be similar to the deal Goff received, the executive said. Goff's contract is a four-year extension that kicks in after the 2024 season and includes a $78 million signing bonus. The Lions will spread that number over five seasons at $14.6 million per season.

Michael DiRocco, ESPN

"I think it's part of the business but obviously the sooner you get it done, it's behind everybody and now we focus on football," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said last month.

"So, that's not lingering and that's not out there. I know Trent [Baalke] and his agent they've continued to talk and will talk. They're working hard and tirelessly. I've just got to coach Trevor, coach football, and hopefully it gets done and it will."

Lawrence finished 2023 completing 65.6% of his passes for 4,016 yards, 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, along with seven lost fumbles. Lawrence also missed his first career start as he dealt with four different injuries, with Lawrence seemingly having to limp to the finish of the season.

Lawrence sustained four different injuries last fall that forced him to miss valuable practice time and play in several games with injuries: a knee injury in Week 6, an ankle injury in Week 13, a concussion in Week 15, and then finally a shoulder injury in Week 16 that forced him to miss his first-career start.

Among Lawrence's 16 starts, his four starts after each injury saw Lawrence have his 2nd, 5th, 7th, and 8th worst games of the season by total EPA.