How NFL Trades Involving Future 1st-Rounders Have Fared Since 2019

Stellar grades are pouring in for Jacksonville but trading away future first-round picks is as risky as swimming with Florida alligators. And much more often than not, the bites from those trades wind up leaving ugly scars.

The team relinquishing its future first-rounder doesn’t realize the true value because no one knows where the other club will finish in the upcoming season. The value of a top-five choice, for example, is much higher than a selection anywhere from 28-32 at the end of the first round.

So, trading a future first-rounder means greater pressure on the ultimate impetus for the trade, usually an All-Pro veteran like Jalen Ramsey or highly coveted draft choice like Travis Hunter. And before Thursday night, history did not pan out well for most of the previous 15 trades involving future first-rounders.

In fact, 12 of those deals have, at best, netted less-than-ideal results for the team that surrendered the future first-round capital.

The good news for Jacksonville is that James Gladstone was involved in two of the three trades that actually worked. The Rams acquired Matthew Stafford in 2021 and Jalen Ramsey in 2019. Both players were pivotal in the team's 2021 Super Bowl title, and both veterans excelled in Los Angeles. Gladstone then joined the Rams in reshaping their roster from 2022-24 and building through the draft.

“For our fans, I'll tell you, don't be scared,” the new Jaguars GM said Thursday night. “This is something I'm uniquely positioned to navigate. We ended up bringing Travis Hunter to Jacksonville, and with that, he is somebody who is deserving of a first-round draft pick as a wide receiver, and he is worthy of a first-round draft pick as a corner.”

The other successful trade involving a future first-rounder was Houston trading up to draft Will Anderson, who earned the NFL’s 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year award and registered 11 sacks in his second season, helping the Texans to consecutive playoff berths.

But other than those three deals, history is not on Jacksonville’s side. Here’s a closer look at the 12 trades that didn’t pan out for teams that surrendered future first-round picks since 2019.

Less-than-ideal (4)

2022, New Orleans winds up with wide receiver Chris Olave and tackle Trevor Penning in the 2022 first round, part of a massive trade that includes sending a 2023 first-rounder to Philadelphia. Penning has started just 23 games in three seasons and the Saints recently opted not to exercise the fifth-year option on his rookie deal. Olave has shown flashes of brilliance – including consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns to begin his career – but missed half the 2024 season with injuries.

2021, Miami sends a 2022 first-rounder as part of a trade to acquire Philadelphia’s No. 6 overall choice, then drafts Jaylen Waddle. While Waddle begins his career with three straight 1,000-yard seasons, including 1,015 yards and six touchdowns on 104 receptions as a 2021 rookie, he’s never made a Pro Bowl or All-Pro team and finished with career lows in catches (58), yards (744) and touchdowns (2) in 2024.

2019, Pittsburgh receives safety Minkah Fitzpatrick in a deal with Miami involving the Steelers’ 2020 first-rounder. Fitzpatrick winds up with four Pro Bowl selections in six seasons since the trade, posting 18 interceptions with three touchdowns. But one of the picks from Miami, a 2020 fourth-rounder that became Kevin Dotson, is now helping the Rams much more than the Steelers. Pittsburgh deals Dotson to Los Angeles before the 2023 season.

2019, Houston acquires tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Kenny Stills from Miami in a trade involving a 2020 first-rounder. That future first, subsequently traded to Green Bay, becomes quarterback Jordan Love. Tunsil winds up with five Pro Bowl selections in six years before the Texans trade him to Washington in 2025. Stills plays just 23 games in two seasons (2019-20) with the Texans, producing 705 yards on 51 receptions.

Incomplete (2)

2023, Carolina acquires the No. 1 overall pick from Chicago to take Bryce Young. The deal includes a 2024 first-rounder – which in a worst-case scenario for the Panthers becomes the No. 1 overall selection. Carolina benches Young early in his second season before he returns and finishes 2024 in strong fashion. The jury will be sequestered while it deliberates for at least another full season.

2022, Miami gives Denver a future first-rounder to acquire defensive end Bradley Chubb. In 24 games with the Dolphins, Chubb has 13½ sacks and seven forced fumbles but hasn’t tipped the scales Miami’s way. He misses the entire 2024 season on PUP with a knee injury.

Failing (6)

2022, Cleveland gets Deshaun Watson from Houston for two future first-rounders, then gives him a five-year, $230 million guaranteed contract. Suspended by the NFL over his first 11 games in a Browns uniform, he’s 9-10 as a Cleveland starter with 19 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions, and likely to miss the 2025 season with an Achilles’ injury.

2022, Denver obtains Russell Wilson from Seattle in a trade involving two future first-rounders. Wilson, who signs a five-year, $242.6 million contract shortly after the Broncos land him, is just 11-19 with 42 touchdown passes and 19 interceptions over two years in Denver. He’s since changed teams twice and enters 2025 with Jaxson Dart, Jameis Winston and the Giants.

2021, San Francisco acquires the No. 3 overall pick from Miami to take Trey Lance. The quarterback has started five games in four years. He’s now a third-stringer with his third NFL team, the Chargers.

2021, Indianapolis -- two years after Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement -- obtains Carson Wentz from Philadelphia for a deal including the Colts’ 2022 first-rounder. Wentz spends one year with the Colts, going 9-8 as a starter before Indianapolis trades him to Washington in March 2022.

2021, Chicago moves up nine spots to draft Justin Fields, paying a steep price that includes sending the Giants a 2022 first-rounder (which becomes a No. 7 overall selection). Fields goes 14-30 in three years as a Bears starter, with 40 touchdown passes and 30 interceptions. After a year in Pittsburgh, he signs with the Jets.

2020, Seattle gets safety Jamal Adams from the Jets for a 2021 first-rounder. Adams earns Pro Bowl honors in his first Seahawks season but winds up playing just 34 games in four years before leaving town.

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