3 Matchups That Will Decide Jets’ Week 2 vs. Packers (David Bailey & the Pass Rush Take Center Stage)

These matchups could determine what happens on Sunday, including one involving rookie pass rusher David Bailey.

David Bailey and the rest of the Jets' pass rush will play a key role in one of this weekend's most important matchups. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Jets are set to take on the Packers in the Meadowlands on Sunday. 

This will be the 15th meeting between the two historic franchises, with Gang Green leading the series with a 9-5 record. 

While the Jets enter Sunday's matchup fresh off a dominant 23-10 victory against the Titans, the Packers are eager to put their 39-22 loss to the Vikings behind them. 

Despite the opposite outcomes, Green Bay is undoubtedly a better team than Tennessee and will provide New York with a true test. Every individual battle will mean something as head coaches Aaron Glenn and Matt LaFleur try to one-up each other.

With that in mind, the Jets can beat the Packers as long as they win these three matchups. 

1. Jets' pass rush vs. Packers’ offensive line 

The Packers heavily retooled and shifted their offensive line this offseason. Despite having three returning starters, they shifted Jordan Morgan from right guard to tackle, and Aaron Banks, who’s supposed to be the starting left guard, missed the season opener with knee tendinitis. 

Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who’s known for his heavy blitz usage, tested the unit. The Vikings blitzed quarterback Jordan Love on 71.7% of his dropbacks, recording 31 pressures and four sacks. 

As a result, Love had an average time to throw (TTT) of 2.56 seconds, according to NFL Next Gen Stats—the third-lowest mark of the week. 

David Bailey could be salivating after seeing how easily the Vikings put pressure on Packers QB Jordan Love last week. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Jets must use this formula and expose this weakness. 

The revamped pass rush—led by rookie edge rusher David Bailey and Will McDonald IV—thrived against the Titans’ line, recording 27 pressures and three sacks. And it wasn’t just the edge rushers who generated pressure. Interior linemen Jowon Briggs, David Onyemata and T’Vondre Sweat also generated pressure.

Although he didn’t blitz nearly as much as Flores, New York head coach and defensive play caller Aaron Glenn dialed it up against Tennessee’s second-year quarterback Cam Ward, blitzing him on 46.2% of his dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus.

Even if the Jets do pressure Love at a somewhat similar rate, it won’t guarantee a win. Despite being overwhelmed, Love was still highly productive, posting 387 passing yards and two touchdowns. 

With Love’s quick decision-making, he can get the ball out before the pass rush can get home. This puts additional pressure on New York’s secondary to contain Green Bay’s pass catchers. 

2. Jets’ secondary vs. Christian Watson

Christian Watson is not regarded as one of the league’s best receivers. However, his impact on Green Bay’s offense is undeniable. 

When Watson is healthy, the Packers’ offense is significantly better and more effective. Last season, Love averaged 10.2 air yards per attempt with Watson in the lineup, according to Next Gen Stats. Without him on the field, that number drops to 7.8 air yards. 

Watson’s ability to stretch the field with his 6-foot-4 frame and sub-4.4-second speed makes him an imposing threat defenses have to account for. He gravitates toward opposing secondaries, creating opportunities for Green Bay’s other pass catchers. 

We saw this against the Vikings, where Watson recorded six receptions for 147 yards and two touchdowns. Two of his catches went for 30 yards or more. This opened the door for Matthew Golden, Tucker Kraft and Jonnu Smith, each of whom had recorded a catch of at least 30 yards. 

Containing Watson will be critical to a Jets’ victory, and all eyes will be on outside corners, Brandon Stephens and Azareye’h Thomas. 

The Jets will count on the likes of Azareye'h Thomas and Malachi Moore to keep Christian Watson at bay this weekend. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Both corners were locked down in coverage last Sunday, holding Tennessee’s receivers to just nine receptions (13 targets) for 72 yards. Although Thomas was picked on, he held receivers to just seven catches for 46 yards. His physicality and exceptional boundary coverage stood out, while Stephens secured his side of the field.

Green Bay’s receivers will challenge New York's secondary. But if Stephens and Thomas can contain Watson and keep him from slipping past unnoticed, it puts pressure on the other Packers receivers to make plays. 

3. Jets’ RB’s vs. Packers’ run defense 

In the season opener, Glenn and offensive coordinator Frank Reich showed fans the offense’s identity: dominate the line of scrimmage by pounding the football

And they did just that, behind terrific blocking from the offensive line, Braelon Allen and Breece Hall combined for 32 carries for 142 yards (4.4 yards per attempt) and one touchdown.

While it’s no surprise New York’s run game looked strong after tying for 10th in rushing yards (123.3) per game last season, it won’t be easy against the Packers’ defense. 

Although the Packers weren't great against the run last year—allowing 117.7 rushing yards per game, which ranked 18th in the NFL—they held their own against the Vikings' solid offensive line, allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt.  

Breece Hall could be in for a long day, depending on the shape of the Packers' defensive line this weekend. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Jets have a strong OL and the necessary RB depth to pound the ball and try to tire the Packers’ defense. They did that on their third offensive drive against the Titans, running the ball 15 times on a 19-play drive that lasted just under 12 minutes. 

With Green Bay’s defensive line banged up, pounding the ball and wearing down the defense should be among New York's top priorities. Establishing the run game early will also make life easier for Geno Smith, opening up play-action opportunities that will only increase the Jets' chances of success.

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