The Lions-Vikings Game Could Come Down to One Simple Factor

The Lions and Vikings meet again on Sunday, as two NFC North contenders look to solidify their standing in the division.

The most exciting part of the matchup will be the hot Lions’ offense taking on the Brian Flores-led defense, which leads the league in points allowed (12.3 per game). When Flores first took over in 2023, Jared Goff and the Lions went 4–0 against him in 2023 and ’24. Last season, the Vikings took control of the rivalry, sweeping the Lions as Flores’s blitzes overwhelmed Goff and the offense.

When the Lions and Vikings meet again this weekend, the game could very well come down to one common football trope: Which team can best protect their quarterback.

Ahead of the game, here are four numbers that will show what each team will face as they look to keep their quarterback upright.

68.4%

The Vikings’ blitz rate this season is the highest in the league and over 25% more than the closest team, the Commanders, who have a 42.3% blitz rate (the Commanders DC, Daronte Jones, is a disciple of Brian Flores). The Vikings have led the league in blitz rate every season since Flores arrived in Minnesota in 2023, but even they are blitzing at a high rate for Flores’s standard. The previous season-high blitz rate was 48.8% in 2023. This year, they’re blitzing nearly 20% more.

Against Goff and the Lions, the Vikings have blitzed at the following rates:

2025: 44.7% (55.9% in Week 17, 35.7% in Week 9)
2024: 54.7% (55.2% in Week 18, 54.3% in Week 7)
2023: 73% (68.3% in Week 18, 78.8% in Week 16)

This past weekend, the Vikings blitzed the Colts at an 85.2% rate, the highest in the Next Gen Stats era or since 2016. They also blitzed Packers quarterback Jordan Love on 78.3% of dropbacks and the Bears at a rate of 72.1%. In short, Flores is blitzing more than ever before, and is expected to go after Goff on Sunday.

10

The Vikings sacked Goff five times in each game last season. The Vikings didn’t necessarily blitz more in 2025, but they did a better job affecting Goff and throwing him off his rhythm.

In 2023, Goff completed 74.1% of his passes for 442 yards, three touchdowns, no picks, no sacks and an EPA per dropback of +0.35 when Flores blitzed. The following season, he completed 81.8% of passes against the blitz for 296 yards, two touchdowns and two picks and an EPA per dropback of +0.20. Overall, the Vikings sacked him six times in their two 2024 matchups, but just two of those came when blitzing.

Those numbers began to dip in 2025, when Goff only completed 44.8% of his passes for 142 yards, no touchdowns, two picks and five sacks against the Vikings’ blitzes. His EPA per dropback also plummeted to -0.44. This weekend, the Vikings will look to continue that success by blitzing Goff, while he and the Lions will try to replicate their ’23 and ’24 success.

0

Interceptions Jared Goff has thrown this season. Goff has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in Detroit, regularly ranking top five in passing yards and touchdowns. He’s off to another strong start this year, completing 67.3% of his passes for 1,788 yards (sixth), 14 touchdowns (fourth) and no picks.

“He’s been one of the best quarterbacks in the National Football League over a good amount of time,” Flores told reporters this week. “He’s grown quite a bit.”

In addition to getting to the quarterback more, part of the Vikings’ improved success against him last season was forcing turnovers. They intercepted two total passes across four matches in ’23 and ’24, compared to two in two matchups last season. On top of those picks, they also forced Goff to fumble twice last Christmas, for a total of four turnovers. Goff has yet to throw a pick, but the Vikings are the league leaders in turnover differential (plus-7) and rank fifth in total takeaways with 11. The Vikings will look to snatch the ball from Goff, while for the Lions, maintaining possession could be the difference between a key win and loss.

12

Sacks the Vikings allowed in two matchups against the Lions last season. The flip side of the matchup that can’t be ignored is how well can the Vikings protect Kyler Murray. The Vikings won both games but gave up 12 sacks: seven when Max Brosmer started on Christmas Day and five when J.J. McCarthy started in his return from a sprained ankle.

The Lions rank 16th in both pressure rate (36.1%) and blitz rate (29.9%), but they have been good at getting to the quarterback this season. They are tied with the Bengals, Broncos, Vikings and Texans for the most sacks, 21. Meanwhile, the Vikings have given up 18 sacks, tied for eighth-most. Murray has taken 12 of those through five starts. Because the Vikings haven’t been good at driving the ball downfield and scoring touchdowns, it’s more important for them to try to avoid sacks and other negative plays that could put them into poor down-and-distance situations.

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