How Concerning Is the Lions Defense? Here’s What Four Numbers Say About the Unit’s Struggles

Shortly after James Cook ran in for the Bills’ seventh touchdown in their 41–31 win over the Lions, the Prime Video broadcast cameras panned over to Dan Campbell. He wasn't yelling or speaking to anyone, but disappointment emanated from his defeated expression.

His expression mirrored his defense in this game: helpless. After Tyler Shough and the Saints tore up the Lions’ defense in the second half and overtime of Week 1, nearly pulling off a miraculous comeback win, the Bills’ offense dominated Detroit on Thursday night.

Through two weeks, the Lions’ defense has been the team’s obvious kryptonite, creating concern for a talented team’s outlook for the rest of the season. Here are four numbers that define the unit’s struggles so far.

71

The total number of points the Lions have given up through two games, or 35 per game. No team allowed more than 31 points per game last season, and while this is a small two-game sample size and a number that will almost certainly improve, it’s still a discouraging start for a Lions team that went into the season with high expectations. At this point, it seems that when the Lions face a good offense, their best shot at winning is in a shootout, and that is not an easy formula in general, and especially when their offense is missing three offensive linemen.

9

The number of touchdowns the Lions have allowed in the red zone this season. The Saints and Bills took 10 trips into the red zone, and the Lions allowed touchdowns on 90% of those drives, including 100% of the Bills’ red zone trips on Thursday.

The Lions were not expected to be a top-five defense entering this season, especially before the return of safeties Kerby Joseph and Branch Branch. They could, however, be more successful if they could implement a “bend don’t break” approach. Unfortunately, they have done the opposite by allowing a 90% touchdown rate when teams reach the red zone, rather than limiting opponents to field goals.

They’ve struggled to get off the field in general, with the Bills converting 9-of-12 (75%) of their third-down attempts. So, if Detroit’s offense gets stopped early in the game, as it did against Buffalo, the Lions can quickly fall into a hole too deep to dig out of.

203

The number of yards the Bills rushed for against the Lions. Between Allen and James Cook III, the Bills boast one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. And the Lions could do little to limit them. Cook rushed for 135 yards and a touchdown (6.4 yards per carry) while Allen added 14 carries for 69 yards and two touchdowns.

In particular, the Lions struggled when the Bills ran out of heavier personnel. According to Sumer Sports, the Bills had a 71.4% rushing success rate out of 12 personnel (14 carries for 115 yards) and a 55.6% success rate running out of 13 personnel (nine carries for 39 yards).

Campbell acknowledged that his defense had several busts in both run defense and pass coverage, including plays where two defenders were in one gap or were in spots they were not supposed to be.

410

The number of yards Shough threw for against Detroit in Week 1, a career-high for the second-year quarterback. The Lions’ defense has struggled not only against the run this season, but against the pass as well. Allen’s passing numbers weren’t as gaudy as Shough’s—he threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns—but he was efficient, registering a 54.8% passing success rate, a mark that would have ranked eighth in the league in Week 1, per Sumer Sports.

Lions DC Kelvin Sheppard tried to pressure Allen by blitzing him on 55.3% of his dropbacks, a high for Sheppard, but Allen excelled and broke contain. Per Next Gen Stats, Allen completed 12-of-17 passes for 137 yards and two touchdowns when blitzed, and also scrambled for 49 yards and a touchdown.

“If you don’t keep him in the pocket, if you don’t keep him contained, he can hurt you,” Campbell said of Allen. “He did that multiple times.”

The Lions have some good players on defense, linebacker Jack Campbell and edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, but they don’t appear to have a strength as a unit to rely on yet.

The bright side

The Lions certainly weren’t thrilled to hear the Bills Mafia singing “Mr. Brightside” in celebration in the fourth quarter, but there are reasons for Detroit to look on the bright side going forward. The Lions defense came into this season missing Joseph and Branch, who were placed on the physically unable to perform list before the year, but are expected to return this season. Once they return, the secondary should be better, even if still an imperfect unit.

The Lions defense also may have been worn out after playing in an overtime game vs. the Saints on Sunday and then traveling to play against Buffalo on a short week. Detroit will have extra time to rest ahead of its next game against the Jets in 10 days.

Fortunately, the Lions have the easiest schedule in the NFL. The Bills were certainly one of the toughest matchups for them, especially with Allen and the offense on a heater. There are definitely reasons to feel concerned about this Lions’ defense through two games, but they have time to improve, which will be easier to do when they’re not facing an MVP quarterback.

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