How Detroit Lions Win or Loss Against Rams Impacts Playoff Odds

Examining how Lions' playoff hopes are impacted by Week 15 game.

Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell during the second half against the Dallas Cowboys at Ford Field | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

The Detroit Lions' offense decimated the Dallas Cowboys' defense, winning 44-30 in a shootout. That puts Dan Campbell's squad in a more favorable position to make the playoffs, but they are still on the outside looking in. 

The SportsLine Projection Model has Detroit (8-5) with a 52% chance to make playoffs heading into this week’s battle with former Lion quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. The Athletic’s playoff simulator, however, has Detroit with a more conservative 39% chance of heading to the post-season. 

Heading into this week’s action, here is a look at the playoff picture, starting with the NFC North.

NFC North

1.      Green Bay Packers: 9-3-1
2.      Chicago Bears: 9-4
3.      Detroit Lions: 8-5
4.      Minnesota Vikings: 5-8

Now, it is worth noting that, in addition to being up 1.5 games on the Detroit Lions, the Packers own a tiebreaker with a season sweep of Detroit. The Lions are a game behind the Bears, but a week 18 battle could shape up to be “winner takes all,” depending on how the three teams finish their seasons out.

Now, here is a look at the NFC Playoff Picture.

NFC Standings

1.      Los Angeles Rams: 10-3
2.      Green Bay Packers: 9-3-1
3.      Philadelphia Eagles: 8-5
4.      Carolina Panthers: 7-6
5.      Seattle Seahawks: 10-3
6.      San Francisco 49ers: 9-4
7.      Chicago Bears: 9-4
8.      Detroit Lions: 8-5
9.      Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-7
10.  Dallas Cowboys: 6-6-1
11.  Minnesota Vikings: 5-8

Of course, the Eagles and Panthers are seeded based on leading their division, rather than solely win-loss record. A win over Los Angeles puts Detroit in a much more favorable position, as they stand at one game back over a team they have a head-to-head win over, along with Chicago and Green Bay facing off next week to drop one squad a game closer to Detroit. 

Currently, Chicago and Green Bay are each favored for their matchups this week. 

A win over the NFC West leaders would go a long way for Detroit, but things will not be easy with the team traveling across the country to play a team that is stacked in nearly every position group. However, looking at the odds, a win makes Lions’ fans breathe a bit easier.

The Athletic’s playoff predictor puts Detroit with a 60% chance to reach the post-season, a 21% jump over their current odds. A loss, however, sinks Detroit to a 31% chance, just a drop of eight percent. It is also worth mentioning that this is the last game of the season where Detroit is not favored as of this writing. A 3-1 end to the season makes playoffs likely, but not assured. 

The SportsLine Predictor Model similarly reflects the Lions’ odds increasing, jumping to 71.4% with a win over Stafford and the Rams. A loss, however, drops Detroit to only a 36.9% chance.

While this game is not as critical in the “must-win” category as last week’s Dallas matchup, a loss virtually guarantees that Detroit must win out in their final three games of 2025. 

Making things worse, the ESPN matchup predictor for this week has every team in Wild Card contention ahead of the Lions favored over their respective opponents by 7.5 points or more, except for Green Bay, which is favored by 2.5 points over Denver.

The gauntlet has been placed down for Dan Campbell & Co. Now, the Lions must rise to the challenge.