What New DVOA Projections Say About Lions 2026 Playoff Hopes

The Detroit Lions are looking to prove that last year's last-place finish in the NFC North was a fluke.

Last season, Detroit struggled with consistency on both sides of the ball and ultimately came up short of a third-straight trip to the postseason. However, a good majority of their star talent on both sides of the ball are back, and their schedule is more favorable than a year ago.

Because of these factors, the Lions are widely viewed as a team that can get back into the postseason and compete for a championship.

New projections have been released by Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy, who created the DVOA metric. DVOA stands for Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average, which compares how well a team performs on a play compared to the league average.

Through DVOA projections, Schatz also ran simulations of the season to devise projections about how well each team will perform. These projections are favorable for the Lions entering the upcoming season.

"My system starts by considering the team’s DVOA over the past three seasons and, on offense, a separate projection for the starting quarterback," Schatz wrote in an article explaining his projections. "Then I look at a number of other variables which suggest when a team will be better or worse than would otherwise be expected due to standard regression towards the mean. Factors include major offseason personnel changes, coaching experience, recent draft history, age and combined tenure on the offensive line, and certain players returning from injury (or, in the case of these updates, certain players getting injured in the preseason)."

The Lions enter the 2026 season ranked seventh in total DVOA at 8.4 percent. Their offensive DVOA is 3.8 percent, which ranks 17th in the league. Meanwhile, the defense is rated higher and ranks sixth with a DVOA rating of -3.6 percent.

One possible explanation for the Lions' ranking near the middle of the league on offense despite all the returning talent is the uncertainty on the offensive line, particularly at left guard. Additionally, beyond the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, the Lions are light on proven depth at running back and wide receiver with Isiah Pacheco currently on injured reserve.

Another factor working heavily in the Lions' favor is their strength of schedule, or relative favorability given that they play one of the lightest schedules in the league based on last year's win percentage. The DVOA rating of their schedule ranks 30th at -4.2 percent.

Overall, these projections are very favorable for the Lions' chances of getting back to the postseason, as they give them a 67.6 percent chance to get there. That is the highest percentage of any team in the NFC North.

These DVOA projections also give a percentage for a team to win the Super Bowl, with the Lions sitting at 4.7 percent to win the Lombardi Trophy.

While the games will ultimately be decided by the production on the field, as well as injury luck and other factors, the advanced metrics are highly in Detroit's favor of making another trip to the playoffs in 2026.

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