Packers-Lions: Three Reasons for Optimism on Thursday Night Football

The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are set to collide in a huge early-season showdown at Lambeau Field. Here are three reasons why the Packers will win.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Sep 28, 2023 5:04 PM EDT

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Can the Game of the Year be played in September? Maybe not, but there’s no understating the importance of Thursday night’s showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field.

The Packers have to have this game. You can’t lose at home against a key division rival and expect to beat out that rival for the NFC North crown.

With some bonus days before next week’s game at the Las Vegas Raiders and a bye to rest and get ready for the following week’s game at the Denver Broncos and then back-to-back home games against the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams, the Packers could be sitting pretty.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, because the Lions under coach Dan Campbell are a high-quality opponent. Here are three reasons why the Packers will win.

1. Return of the Playmakers

Could running back Aaron Jones and receiver Christian Watson have played last week against New Orleans? Maybe. Did coach Matt LaFleur save them for this game against Detroit? Not that he’d ever admit.

Regardless, the shorthanded Packers stole a victory from the Saints without their top playmakers. Now, Jones and Watson will be back for the biggest game of the year.

Jones, who is fourth in the NFL in total touchdowns since 2017, terrorized the Bears in Week 1 with receptions of 51 and 35 yards. Those are two of the team’s three longest plays from scrimmage this season. His 129 yards on 11 touches are almost as many yards as AJ Dillon (132 yards) on 40 touches. If you discard Dillon’s 14-yard run last week on a backward pass, Green Bay’s longest run by a running back is Patrick Taylor’s 10-yarder.

The Lions’ run defense is great. It made mincemeat of the Falcons’ running game last week after the Falcons made mincemeat of Green Bay’s defense the week before. At least Jones, with his quickness and vision, will give the Packers a chance to get the necessary balance to keep out of obvious passing situations.

Watson, meanwhile, was Green Bay’s best offensive player in last year’s Week 18 loss to Detroit with his five catches for 104 yards. The Packers’ passing game has evolved into a downfield attack. Jordan Love made it work without a true, proven deep threat. The combination of Watson’s deep speed and Love’s push-the-ball mentality should really stretch Detroit’s defense vertically, which will open up the underneath passing game.

Packers WR Christian Watson vs. the Lions.
Photo by Tork Mason/USA Today Sports Images

2. Turnovers and Situations

It’s early in the season and three weeks can create sample-size issues. Nonetheless, the Packers have five key advantages.

Red-zone offense: Green Bay is second with a touchdown rate of 77.9 percent while the Lions’ defense is 22nd at 66.7 percent.

Red-zone defense: Detroit’s offense is 18th with a touchdown rate of 55.6 percent while the Packers’ defense is 11th at 44.4 percent.

Third-down offense: Green Bay is fifth with a conversion rate of 46.5 percent while the Lions’ defense is 13th at 35.9 percent.

Third-down defense: Detroit’s offense is 19th with a conversion rate of 37.5 percent while the Packers’ defense is seventh at 31.0 percent.

Turnovers: Green Bay is ninth in the NFL at plus-2 overall, including a league-low one giveaway. Detroit is 24th in the NFL at minus-3 overall. Only two teams have lost more fumbles (three) and only two teams have fewer interceptions (one) than the Lions.

The Packers have the lead in all five categories. Will those trends hold up on Thursday night?

3. Jordan Love

The Lions’ pass rush is going to be a real problem for Green Bay, which will be without left tackle David Bakhtiari and with a limited right tackle Zach Tom due to their knee injuries.

If the Packers can give Jordan Love time, there will be opportunities against Detroit’s secondary. Slot/safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is on injured reserve and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley is not expected to play. While rookie Brian Branch has more than capably replaced Gardner-Johnson, cornerback Jerry Jacobs has been a weak link.

According to Pro Football Focus and its best guess at coverage responsibilities, the 2021 undrafted free agent has allowed 15-of-21 passing and been penalized three times. At 5-foot-10 1/4, he’s not big. With 4.52 speed in the 40, he’s athletic but uber-talented.

LaFleur and Love know where to attack. Last week against the Saints, they mostly shied away from Marshon Lattimore but threw 22 passes at cornerbacks Alontae Taylor and Isaac Yiadom. Presumably, that means a busy night for Jacobs.

In his three starts, Love has shown the athleticism to get out of harm’s way and, perhaps more importantly, the vision to make things happen once out of the pocket. With his full complement of weapons, Love could have a big night even behind his shorthanded offensive line.