Packers vs. Vikings: Three Reasons for Worry

The Green Bay Packers must beat the Minnesota Vikings to keep their playoff hopes alive. Here are three reasons why they will lose.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Jan 1, 2023 10:33 AM EST

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – With a berth in the NFC playoffs in sight, if not within their grasp, the Green Bay Packers must defeat the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.

The Packers have momentum with three consecutive wins. The Vikings have momentum, too, with their 12-3 record.

The Packers are battle-tested, outscoring the Chicago Bears 18-0 in the fourth quarter, running out the final 9 minutes against the Los Angeles Rams and grabbing three interceptions in the fourth quarter vs. the Miami Dolphins. The Vikings are battle-tested, too, rallying from a 33-0 deficit to beat the Indianapolis Colts and kicking a 61-yard field goal to stun the New York Giants.

“Obviously, one of the best teams in the league, so we’re going to have to play at our best and prepare at our best to give ourselves a chance, because they’ve just been so consistent throughout the entire course of the season,” coach Matt LaFleur said.

“Our guys also know that you’ve got to play the full 60 minutes. You can’t worry about the score or anything like that. Just keep your head down, take it one play at a time and give all your energy and effort to that moment, to that play.”

Few teams can match the Vikings’ offensive firepower, which kicks off the weekly three reasons to worry.

1. Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson is having one of those unimaginably good seasons in a career that seems to be on the fast track to Canton. He’s No. 1 in the NFL with 123 receptions and 1,756 yards. Until Jefferson, only two players in NFL history had 4,000 receiving yards in his first three seasons, led by Randy Moss with 4,163. Jefferson has 4,772, giving him a good chance to get to 5,000 the next two weeks.

This season, Jefferson has caught 70.7 percent of targeted passes, so it’s not as if his numbers are based on the sheer volume of targets. Cover him well? He’s No. 1 with 22 contested catches, according to PFF. On passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, he’s No. 1 in catch percentage (64.0) and No. 2 in receptions (16).

“We’ve got to make sure that we don’t have any breakdowns, first and foremost, in coverage,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “And there were a couple times [in the first matchup] where we were just a little hesitant on the back end, and he was able to get behind us. You just can’t have any of that. When you’re going against a dynamic player like that, there can be no hesitation because if you hesitate for one second, this guy is as good as it gets in this league at that position. There’s nothing he can’t do. He can run any route – whether it’s a short route, a deep route, a choice route – and then he’s electric with the ball in his hands after the catch.”

This game won’t be won by defensive coordinator Joe Barry’s game plan. Bill Belichick is perhaps the greatest defensive mind in NFL history. Jefferson caught nine passes for 139 yards and one touchdown against his Patriots. Sean McDermott is regarded as one of the top defensive coaches in the game today and he’s got a star-studded roster. Jefferson caught 10 passes for 193 yards and one touchdown against his Bills.

The last three games, Jefferson posted 11-223-0 vs. Detroit, 12-123-1 vs. Indianapolis and 12-133-1 vs. the Giants, so it’s not as if the Packers can borrow bits and pieces from recent game plans.

It’s going to be up to Green Bay’s defensive backs to have the best game of their season against the best receiver in the league in the biggest game of the year.

“When a guy does make the play,” Barry said, “you’ve got to limit it to, ‘Hey, if he gets a catch, let’s get him down, let’s move on to the next play. Let’s just not let one catch, miss a tackle or bust a coverage and then it turns into a disaster.’ I think that’s the biggest thing you’ve got to do when you play against an elite receiver like that.”

2. Overall Offensive Firepower

The problem for Joe Barry’s defense is the abundance of weapons on Minnesota’s offense. Adam Thielen is a reliable veteran. KJ Osborn is a rising standout. Dalvin Cook is an elite three-down running back. Tight end T.J. Hockenson, who was acquired at the trade deadline, has caught 52 passes in just eight games; only Travis Kelce has more over that span.

“Skilled tight end,” cornerback Rasul Douglas said. “I don’t think before they had one that they would throw the ball to a lot. When he goes out there, he’s like another receiver.”

That’s a lot of weapons at the disposal of veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins.

“The tight end position gets to work against some premier matchups sometimes,” Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said this week, “but also in some opened-up space from maybe the top shelf being taken or your ‘X’ receiver taking so much responsibility of the defense.”

The key will be getting pressure on Cousins.

“I do know this: If he’s got a clean pocket, you’re in trouble,” coach Matt LaFleur said.

That’s easier said than done. With left tackle Christian Darrisaw and right tackle Brian O’Neill, the Vikings have a pair of excellent bookends to contend with Preston Smith and Green Bay’s outside linebackers. The alternative is to blitz and, if you don’t get home, have to contend with a bunch of one-on-ones against all those playmakers.

Smith, with five sacks the last five games after a five-game stretch with zero sacks, must stay hot and defensive tackles Kenny Clark, Jarran Reed and Devonte Wyatt must capitalize on matchups against left guard Ezra Cleveland, rookie right guard Ed Ingram and backup center Austin Schlottmann.

3. Enough Firepower?

Here’s the reality: The Vikings have five more wins than the Packers for a reason.

Statistically, Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins are having similar seasons based on passer rating. Cousins has Justin Jefferson and that aforementioned group of playmakers. Rodgers has … what? His best receiver, rookie Christian Watson, barely practiced this week due a hip injury. The team’s top playmaker, running back Aaron Jones, is dealing with a collection of injuries that limited him to eight touches last week and just one run of 15-plus yards over the last five games.

It seems simplistic to say that a team’s big weapons need to deliver in big games. The Vikings have more big weapons to make those big plays, which perhaps explains why they’re 11-0 in one-score games.

“That’s the league,” Rodgers said. “You win those games, you’re going to be playoff bound. You struggle or break even, you’re going to be struggling or finding yourself at home in January. They’ve done a great job of that, winning games in the last second. They’ve won like six in the last play of the game so, obviously, they had to play really well in crunch time.”