Packers-Broncos Matchups: Who Has Advantage in Possible Super Bowl Preview?

The Green Bay Packers have scored the biggest win of the season in each of their last two games.

A 31-24 win against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving gave them an opportunity to play for first place in the NFC North against the Chicago Bears.

The Packers followed up a big road win in Detroit with a big win at home against their oldest rival. Josh Jacobs’ short touchdown run and Keisean Nixon’s game-winning interception catapulted the team to 9-3-1 as it enters its final four games of the season.

The goals from here are simple. The Packers are a near lock to make the postseason, but their goals are much bigger. This team wants to win the NFC North and position itself for a Super Bowl run.

The next two games will go a long way toward deciding that.

The Packers have little time to rest after a heart-stopping win against Chicago. For an encore, they’ll have to beat a team that is tied for the best record in the NFL. The Denver Broncos, who also are looking to make a Super Bowl run, are 11-2 led by a hellacious defense powered by a loaded pass rush.

The Packers have not won in Denver since 2007. Can they extend their winning streak to five games? Here are the matchups that will decide Sunday’s heavyweight fight.

Broncos Pass Offense vs. Packers Pass Defense

Denver’s offense is led by second-year quarterback Bo Nix, who has improved steadily under the tutelage of coach Sean Payton.

The story of the Broncos’ season has been winning close games, with Nix making plays in the fourth quarter to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Nix has a league-high five fourth-quarter comebacks, highlighted by a 33-point fourth quarter against the Giants on Oct. 19. Overall, though, he’s thrown nine interceptions and ranks 23rd out of 27 qualifying passers in passer rating.

When Nix has time to throw, he’s looking for Courtland Sutton or Troy Franklin. They have accounted for 178 targets this season and are the only players to eclipse 70 targets. Sutton has 56 receptions for 773 yards and Franklin has 51 catches for 541 yards. Both have five touchdowns.

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) passes the ball under pressure from Washington Commanders linebacker Von Miller. | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Veteran tight end Evan Engram (40 catches, 347 yards) can be a matchup threat and rookie receiver Pat Bryant has 12 of his 22 receptions the past three weeks.

Defensively, Green Bay played two separate halves on Sunday. Their first half was dominant in both phases as it suffocated Chicago’s run and pass game and limited the Bears to three points. The second half flipped the script. Chicago scored on three of its four possessions. The one it did not score on reached Green Bay’s 14-yard line before Keisean Nixon’s saving interception.

Payton has earned plenty of praise over the years for his ability to scheme an offense around his quarterback, and that’s likely something he’ll have to do on Sunday. Denver will not be able to keep up with Green Bay if forced into straight dropback-passing mode. That’s similar to the game plan Green Bay has faced all season, and notably against Chicago.

The difference here is that while Williams can be a playmaker when pressured, Nix struggles. His under-pressure passer rating is a woeful 53.3.

This is a big week for Green Bay’s pass rush to control the game if given the opportunity.

Advantage: Packers

Broncos Rush Offense vs. Packers Run Defense

Denver’s run game changed dramatically when J.K. Dobbins was lost for the season with a foot injury. Dobbins was averaging more than 5.0 yards per carry through 10 games and was on pace to top 1,300 yards. His understudy, R.J. Harvey, has been handed the keys to the backfield but is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry.

As is the case with most teams under Payton, he is able to get other people involved in the run game, with eight non-quarterbacks getting carries. That might be the way that Payton tries to muster up some balance against Green Bay’s defense.

Much like the passing game, Green Bay’s defense was good in the first half against Chicago’s ground game, but noticeably absent in the second half. To be fair, some of that might have been a result of the Packers’ offense going three-and-out on two of three drives to start the second half.

Green Bay’s final numbers against Chicago’s powerful rushing attack weren’t great, but they didn’t allow any explosive runs, either.

With Quay Walker back in the fold, that’s something that should help them continue to play well against the run. If they can get Denver to be one-dimensional, they really have a chance to wreck this game on defense.

The good news for Green Bay is it has the formula to slow down Denver’s run game. It’s just a matter of if that formula leads to success on gameday.

Advantage: Packers

Broncos Pass Defense vs. Packers Passing Offense

This is the heavyweight fight of the game. Denver has ridden to 11-2 largely on the back of its defense, which is highlighted by its pass rush. The Broncos have 55 sacks, which is 11 more than any other team and on pace for 72, which would tie the NFL record set by the legendary 1985 Bears.

On the edges, Nik Bonitto leads the team with 12.5 sacks and Jonathan Cooper has 7.5 sacks. At defensive tackle, Zach Allen has six sacks and John-Franklin Myers has 5.5. An astounding 11 players have at least two.

Denver Broncos outside linebackers Nik Bonitto (15) and Jonathon Cooper have combined for 20 sacks. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

It’s not as if the pass rush is covering up gaping holes in the secondary, either. Patrick Surtain Jr. is one of the best players in football at cornerback. Jahdae Barron was a first-round pick in April’s draft, and Riley Moss has had some bright moments, as well.

The corners are aggressive. While neither has an interception, Surtain, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, has 11 passes defensed. Moss has 12. However, only Green Bay’s Keisean Nixon has more penalties than Moss (11) and Surtain (nine).

Former All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga has 10 passes defensed.

The defense is led by Vance Joseph, a former head coach and one of the more respected defensive minds in football.

The Broncos are 10th in passing yards given up per game but third in yards per play.

Green Bay’s passing game may be peaking at the right time. After a mostly conservative game plan against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 12, Jordan Love has caught fire. He’s thrown seven touchdowns and just one interception in the last two games, both big wins against divisional opponents.

Love shook off an interception on the first drive against Chicago and threw three touchdown passes, all of which were more than 20 yards. Two of those went to Christian Watson, who is emerging as the team’s best receiver.

The offense also welcomed back Jayden Reed last week, and his impact should only be able to grow.

The biggest question in this game will be whether Love will have enough time to find receivers against Denver’s rush. Green Bay’s offensive line was good against Chicago, only allowing one sack, which was more of a coverage sack to Montez Sweat.

Love and his receivers should be able to make some plays if they have time, but this will be the biggest test Green Bay’s new-look offensive line.

Advantage: Push

Broncos Rush Defense vs. Green Bay’s Rush Offense

Green Bay’s run game has found some traction the last two weeks with Josh Jacobs looking as fresh as he has all season.

When the game was on the line against Chicago, Jacobs had two of his best runs of the season. The first came on a pivotal third-and-2 with about 5 minutes remaining, when Jacobs seemed destined to lose yards but instead ran through four defenders at the point of attack for a 21-yard gain. Three plays later, Jacobs scored the decisive touchdown.

The final numbers were not eye-popping. He only had 86 yards on 20 carries, but they were all well-earned.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs finds an opening against the Chicago Bears on Sunday. | Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Broncos’ run defense is much better than the ones Green Bay faced the last two weeks. Chicago and Detroit are average or below average in the run game. The Broncos are second with 89.0 rushing yards allowed per game and first with 3.70 rushing yards allowed per attempt. Linebacker Alex Singleton leads with 103 tackles and Hufanga is next with 94.

Green Bay is going to need to commit to a run game of some sort, because being predictable against Denver’s pass rush is asking for trouble. The reality is there are going to be some ugly runs in this game, and this is the matchup the Broncos have the largest advantage.

Advantage: Broncos

Special Teams

It looks like Brandon McManus may have righted the ship. He has not missed a kick in the past three games. McManus has struggled, however, with kickoffs. Against Detroit, he kicked three touchbacks in the first half. Against Chicago, he kicked one out of bounds to give the Bears the ball at the 40.

When the ball was kicked into the field of play, the kickoff coverage was good. Arron Mosby and Ty’Ron Hopper have turned into really good players in the third phase of the game.

The return game remains murky with Savion Williams sidelined by a foot injury. Emanuel Wilson and Bo Melton handled kickoff-return duties last week, and likely will do so again if Williams can’t play. Melton had a 30-yard return against the Bears.

Despite the return of Reed, Romeo Doubs handled punt return duties. That looks like it’s going to be his job for the remainder of the season.

Denver’s return game is led by receiver Marvin Mims Jr., who was a second-team All-Pro in 2023 and a first-team All-Pro in 2024. On kickoff returns, he’s averaging 26.6 yards per runback this season and a had a 99-yard touchdown as a rookie. On punt returns, he led the league with a 15.7-yard average last season and is leading the league with a 16.4-yard average this year. He had a 48-yard touchdown last week to earn AFC Special Teams Player of the Week.

Will Lutz has made 87.0 percent of his field-goal attempts, which ranks 13th out of 29 kickers with at least 15 attempts. Jeremy Crenshaw has a big leg in the punting game. He has a 76-yard boot but ranks only 16th in net average.

Ultimately, the advantage lies in the dynamics of the return game, where Denver is much more capable.