Packers Sprint to Front of New-And-Unimproved NFC North

The Green Bay Packers finished 11-6 but were blown out of the water in the powerhouse NFC North last season. This year, they’re 2-0 and in first place. Here’s a closer look.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love signals a first down against the Commanders on Thursday. | Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Last year, the NFC North could stake claim as being the best division in NFL history. The Green Bay Packers went 11-6 and weren’t even in the championship race. With the Detroit Lions going 15-2 and the Minnesota Vikings 14-3, the cumulative winning percentage of .662 was the highest for any division of all-time.

It’s early – really early – but the NFC North doesn’t seem nearly as strong this season. That could be good news for the Packers, who stormed out of the gates with statement victories over the Lions, the back-to-back division champions, and Washington Commanders, who reached the NFC Championship Game last season.

NFC North Standings

Green Bay Packers: 2-0

Minnesota Vikings: 1-1

Detroit Lions: 1-1

Chicago Bears: 0-2

With the early wins, Green Bay has grabbed the early lead as it tries to win the division for the first time since 2021.

“Yeah, big picture, it all starts with the NFC North,” quarterback Jordan Love said after beating Detroit. “To have a North team come in here Week 1 and be able to get the job done and go 1-0 in the North is the start we wanted right there. But big-big picture for us right now, the Super Bowl’s down the road, but it all starts with the NFC North, so we’ve got to go out there and, obviously, get off to a better start than we did last year and I think it starts with what we did today.”

The North is 1-1 in out-of-division games, with Green Bay’s impressive win over Washington offset by Minnesota’s miserable home loss on Sunday night to Atlanta. The Vikings and Lions earned their wins over the Bears. The four teams are a net minus-7 in scoring and are even in net touchdowns.

Last year at this time, the NFC North had a cumulative 5-3 record and all four teams had positive point differentials.

That was just the start. After Week 6, the teams were a cumulative 17-5. Green Bay’s plus-43 scoring differential was the worst. By the end of the season, the Lions were plus-33 in touchdowns, the Packers were plus-13, the Vikings were plus-10 and the five-win Bears were just minus-1.

Big Changes Mean Early Struggles

Of course, there have been significant changes for all four teams.

For Green Bay, it’s the health of quarterback Jordan Love. With Monday’s two games still to be played, Love is fourth in the league with a 120.0 passer rating. He’s thrown four touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Love had only two games all last season with a passer rating of 120-plus. Meanwhile, the end-of-camp trade for Micah Parsons has paid early dividends.

For Detroit, it was the loss of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to the Jets. They were difference-makers, with Johnson leading the NFL’s top-ranked scoring offense last season and Glenn overcoming several high-profile injuries.

For Minnesota, it was the decision to hand the offense to J.J. McCarthy after Sam Darnold played at a near-MVP level last season. A first-round pick last year, McCarthy missed his rookie season due to injury. Of 33 quarterbacks with at least 30 passing attempts, he is last in passer rating.

For Chicago, it was the hiring of Johnson as head coach. After a dismal rookie season, quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2024 draft, has had to learn a new system and a new way of playing the position. He is 21st in passer rating and remains the same struggles-under-pressure quarterback as last season.

“You lose a game like that, man, it’s a kick in the teeth,” Johnson said after his team got demolished 52-21 at Detroit.

Again, it’s early. Presumably, McCarthy will improve with reps and Williams will improve as the weeks progress alongside Johnson.

Latest NFC North Odds

The Lions were the preseason favorites to win a third consecutive division title. Now, at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Packers are a strong favorite to reclaim the North at -190. By implied probability, that’s a 65.5 percent likelihood that Green Bay will win the division.

The Lions are +380, the Vikings are +500 and the Bears – a trendy pick after the hiring of Johnson highlighted a busy few months for the NFL’s “offseason champions” – are +2200.

“That was a tough loss last week. That was tough,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said after his team obliterated the Bears. “We went out there, we expected to play much better than we did. We didn’t give ourselves a chance. Green Bay got after us pretty good. I think more than anything that was a big part of it. I think we answered a lot of questions.”

Week 3 in the North

All four games are out-of-division matchups, so we should get a better gauge on the power – or regression – of the NFC North.

Green Bay (2-0) at Cleveland (0-2). The Packers are 8.5-point favorites at Cleveland this week. The Browns’ defense is hot – Derrick Henry was stopped in his tracks on Sunday – but the offense is not, with Joe Flacco ranking 30th out of 33 in passer rating.

Cincinnati (2-0) at Minnesota (1-1). Throw the records out the window with the Bengals set to play without premier quarterback Joe Burrow for the next few months.

Dallas (1-1) at Chicago (0-2). The Cowboys scored 40 points to win at the Giants while the Bears have allowed 73 points in their last five quarters.

Detroit (1-1) at Baltimore (1-1). This will be a tremendous Monday night showdown between the Lions’ Jared Goff, who had five touchdowns and five incompletions against Chicago, and the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, who has six touchdowns, zero interceptions and a league-leading 136.6 passer rating.