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These Could Be Christian Watson’s Absurd Stats If Packers WR Stays Healthy

This is what you get if you project Christian Watson’s stats from last season over 17 games and then account for additional targets following the departures of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) celebrates after catching a pass against the Baltimore Ravens.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) celebrates after catching a pass against the Baltimore Ravens. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Sometimes, less is more. Other times, less is less.

So it is with the Green Bay Packers’ receiver corps. The Packers have fewer proven receivers following the departure of Romeo Doubs and the trade of Dontayvion Wicks. Maybe the offense will be better in the long run, though, through greater chemistry in the passing game and more opportunities for top playmakers.

In one case, less could be much, much more for one of the Packers’ returning receivers.

In 10 games last season after returning from a torn ACL, Christian Watson caught 35 passes for 611 yards and six touchdowns. That’s a 17-game projection of about 60 receptions for 1,040 yards and 10 touchdowns.

“I feel like that’s the main thing everyone wants to see – obviously, including myself – is just a full season of it,” Watson said. “So, that’s my goal going forward is to put myself in the best position to, obviously, stay healthy throughout the entire season. Get a full season of that across 17 games-plus.”

Impressively considering his injury history, Watson played in 10 consecutive games upon returning to the lineup. Even the injury at Denver that sent him to a hospital didn’t keep him out of action six days later at Chicago.

The numbers from last season are fantastic. Of the 78 receivers who were targeted at least 50 times, Watson finished second in yards per target (11.1), second in yards per catch (17.5) and third in passer rating when targeted (122.6). A projected 10 touchdown catches would have tied for fourth in the league.

But let’s look beyond that projection and make an even grander projection.

Crazy 17-Game Projection for Christian Watson

Doubs and Wicks combined for 131 targets last season. Those have to go somewhere. Let’s say they are split evenly between Watson, fellow receivers Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed, and dynamic tight end Tucker Kraft. That works out to 32 additional targets.

Going back to Watson’s 11.1 yards per target, giving him all those additional opportunities would add 355 yards to last year’s full-season projection of 1,040. That would put him at almost 1,400 receiving yards.

Plus, Watson’s six touchdowns came on 55 targets. That’s one touchdown for every 9.2 targets. Give Watson another 32 opportunities, and what had been a 10-touchdown projection rises to 13.5.

Based on 1,400 yards and 13 touchdowns, Watson would have ranked:

Green Bay Packers receiver Christian Watson makes a sliding catch against the Ravens.
Green Bay Packers receiver Christian Watson makes a sliding catch against the Ravens. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

- Sixth in the NFL in receiving yards.

- Second in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (behind Davante Adams’ 14).

- Seventh in Packers history in receiving yards, including third this century.

- Tied for seventh in Packers history in receiving touchdowns.

Watson had shown that type of production periodically during his first three seasons. Staying healthy last year allowed him to stack practices and games to build momentum.

“I don’t think I find myself wondering what could have been,” he said of past seasons. “I find myself looking forward to what’s going to happen this year, to be honest. I’m trying to put myself in the best position to get 17-plus games this season. I’m just excited to see where it goes this year.

“I think I have the opportunity to take a step forward, even (more) than I did last year. If I can take that step forward and play more games, then I feel like I’ll be in a really good spot.”

Watson exited last season in a great spot. He had four games of 80-plus receiving yards. Even in an abbreviated season, that was the most on the team. Kraft had two, Doubs had two, Golden had one and Wicks had one.

Watson in four seasons has six 100-yard receiving games. The rest of the Packers had a combined eight, including four for Reed, two for Kraft and one apiece by Allen Lazard and Bo Melton.

“I’m happy about it. Super-happy for Christian,” quarterback Jordan Love said of Watson’s contract extension. “I think anytime anybody gets a contract extension, it’s great news. It’s just a testament to the work he puts in, the type of player he is, who he is in this locker room. I’m happy for him. Happy to get him for another four more years.”

Deep and Slot Excellence

As everyone knows, Watson is a premier big-play threat. In 10 games, he caught nine passes and scored four touchdowns on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus. A 17-game projection works out to 15 catches and seven touchdowns. Those figures would have ranked second and first in the league, respectively.

Moreover, with only one drop last year, he statistically is one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL. He’s also an underrated weapon in the slot – he tied for fourth in slot touchdowns even while tying for 65th in slot targets – and is the unit’s best blocker and an unselfish leader.

With that, it’s little wonder why the Packers chose to give a lucrative contract extension to Watson rather than Doubs.

So, how will he handle being such a big part of the passing attack now that more opportunities are going to be coming his way?

“It really comes down to mindset,” he said. “I think that just approaching it the right way in terms of knowing that there’s a lot of things I can still continue to get better at, continue to hone in on.

“Obviously, the best way I’m able to go out there and go out on the field is to play fast and play free. I feel like that helps the team come together and everything, too. I’m just excited to see where everything’s going this offseason.”

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.