Three Keys to Packers Beating Vikings in Key Division Game

After escaping New York with a victory over the Giants, the Green Bay Packers will enter their most important stretch of games this season with an NFC North matchup against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. It will be the first of three consecutive division games and four in five weeks.

Here are three keys for the Packers, who will be playing their first division game since Week 1, as well as a look at the Vikings on offense, defense, and special teams.

Packers-Vikings: Three Keys to Victory

1. Lean on Jordan Love

With Josh Jacobs questionable after missing most of the Giants game and being limited participation at practice on Thursday and Friday, the Packers’ running game could suffer without his production if he can’t suit up on Sunday or plays in a limited fashion.

Backup Emanuel Wilson stepped up last week after Jacobs went down, rushing for 40 yards on 11 carries with a touchdown. While Wilson has proven to be a viable option, the Packers should lean on their passing game if Jacobs can’t play or is on a snap count.

With Jacobs out of the lineup, Jordan Love returned from an injured left shoulder and was 13-of-24 passing for 174 yards and two touchdowns. His second touchdown pass went to Christian Watson, who made a spectacular, leaping catch in the end zone for the decisive score.

Whether Jacobs plays or not, Love has proven that he is a reliable quarterback who can lead the offense down the field to score points. If Jacobs is out or plays in a limited fashion, Love can be looked at to throw the ball 30-plus times and lead the Packers to a win.

2. Make J.J. McCarthy Uncomfortable

In his first season starting for the Vikings, quarterback J.J. McCarthy is not off to the start that the team was expecting. He is completing just 52.9 percent of his passes for 842 yards in five starts. Among 36 quarterbacks who’ve thrown at least 140 passes, he is last in completion percentage and the only passer with more interceptions (eight) than touchdowns (six).

He has not gotten much help from his offensive line, which has given up 34 sacks, tied for fifth-most in the NFL. McCarthy has taken 15 sacks but had a clean game for the first time last week. Even without taking any sacks, McCarthy struggled, completing only half his passes for 150 yards with two interceptions.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) throws a pass against the Bears last week. | Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

He has not gotten much help from his touted supporting cast. Vikings receivers had a season-high six drops last week in the loss to the Bears, according to PFF. He has been victimized by the highest drop percentage in the league.

To prevent McCarthy from settling in against the Packers, they need to make him uncomfortable and nervous in the pocket, especially early. This could be a breakout game for the Packers’ defensive line, which despite having the star power of Rashan Gary and Micah Parsons combining for 15.5 sacks, is 17th in the league with 24 sacks.

“Anytime you get to a quarterback first quarter, first play, maybe not sack him but constant pressure, it definitely makes him look over his head a little bit, kind of know where you’re at,” Parsons said. “If he’s looking at you, he’s not looking downfield, so we’re doing something right.”

They also will need to take away McCarthy’s options downfield in the passing game. It can be a tough task to lock down Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, but Packers cornerbacks Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine have been having good seasons. A strong pass rush will be vital in helping them win their matchups.

3. Minimize Mistakes, Maximize Opponent Mistakes

It is almost too obvious that teams that make less mistakes tend to win more games in the NFL, and it has been especially true for the Packers this season.

In their three losses, the offense has thrown two interceptions, fumbled five times – three of which were recovered by the opposing team – and allowed nine sacks. They also missed a field goal in each loss, all of which ended up being three-point defeats.

The key to getting wins against teams you are supposed to beat is not beating yourselves, something the Packers have struggled with in games where they are heavily favored, such as the losses to the Browns and the Panthers. Minimizing mistakes, protecting Jordan Love and not turning the ball over should bring the Packers a win.

Against a team like the Vikings, who are second in the league in giveaways with 18, the Packers need to maximize their opportunities on defense and force turnovers. Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said the team missed chances for four interceptions, with Carrington Valentine dropping two and Xavier McKinney and Isaiah McDuffie breaking up potential interceptions by Keisean Nixon and Javon Bullard, respectively.

The Packers also need to be sure to score off turnovers if they are able to force the Vikings offense to make some mistakes. The Packers are 13th in the NFL in points per game at 24.0.

Packers-Vikings: The Three Phases

Vikings on Offense

The Vikings finished last season 12th in the NFL in yards per game with 346.9 and ninth in scoring with 25.4 points per game. Led by now-Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold, they finished 14-3 before falling to the Rams in the wild card round. The Vikings have plunged to 27th in total offense (296.4 yards per game) and 22nd in scoring (21.8 points).

The Vikings have had two starting quarterbacks this season. It started with J.J. McCarthy, who is in his first year starting after missing his rookie season with a meniscus tear. McCarthy got injured again Week 2 against the Falcons and Carson Wentz stepped in to lead the Vikings.

McCarthy returned in Week 9 against the Lions, leading the Vikings to a big win. Overall, though, McCarthy has struggled, throwing for just 842 yards in five games (168.4 yards per game) with six touchdowns and eight interceptions. His 52.9 percent completion rate is the worst among starting quarterbacks.

Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones (33) runs with the ball against Green Bay Packers last season. | Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Led by Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones, the Vikings' run game ranks 25th in rushing (103.4 yards per game) but eighth with 4.7 yards per carry. Mason leads the team in rushing with 108 carries for 489 yards and five touchdowns. Jones, who has played six games this season due to a hamstring issue, has 52 carries for 256 yards and one touchdown. He was the clear No. 1 back last week against Chicago.

“I just think he runs for every yard,” defensive end Micah Parsons said of Jones. “He runs with passion, purpose behind every carry. I think he has great vision. I competed with him when I was at Dallas and he was here, and he’s always had some pretty good games. I think we’re a great front and it’s basically what we said: If they’re going to come run it 35 times, we’ve got to be prepared for that.”

The Vikings’ receiving corps is one of the best in the NFL on paper, but due to the poor quarterback play they have dealt with, they haven’t been putting up incredible numbers. Justin Jefferson is seventh with 747 receiving yards but has scored only twice.

The Vikings’ offensive line has struggled this season, too, giving up 34 sacks, the sixth-most in the league. However, for the first time this season, their No. 1 line will be together.

Vikings on Defense

The Vikings defense has been much better than their offense, giving up 317.5 yards per game, which ranks 11th, and 23.2 points per game, which ranks 16th. They have allowed less than 20 points in only one game.

“It’s a defense we’ve seen a good amount over the last couple years, and it’s a very good defense,” Packers quarterback Jordan Love said. “I’ve got a lot of respect for him and what they do, where they throw a lot of different looks at you, and I think they try and make it tough on offenses to figure out what they’re doing and get a bead on what they’re throwing at you.”

The Vikings’ strength is their pass defense, which is seventh in the NFL allowing 190.5 yards per game. The last three games, they are seventh in opponent completion percentage.

Shockingly, no team in the NFL had more interceptions last season than the Vikings’ 24. This season, only one team has fewer than their three. Their secondary is led by safety Josh Metellus, who has 59 tackles, four passes defensed and two interceptions. Cornerback Isaiah Rodgers has the other interception.

Their run defense is significantly worse than their passing defense at 22nd in the NFL, allowing 127.0 yards per game on the ground. Despite their struggles stopping the run, the Vikings have a solid linebacker corps led by former Packer Eric Wilson, who has 70 tackles, nine of which are for losses, to go with 3.5 sacks and three forced fumbles.

The Vikings’ pass rush is one of their strengths, ranking 12th in sacks with 26. Defensive tackle Jalen Redmond leads the way with four, followed by Wilson’s 3.5. The Vikings have eight more players with at least one sack, which has offset the drop in production from outside linebackers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel. Last year, they had 23.5 sacks (12 for Greenard, 11.5 for Van Ginkel). This year, they have five (three for Van Ginkel, two for Greenard).

Vikings on Special Teams

Second-year kicker Will Reichard is 19-of-21 on field goals, with both misses being from 50-plus yards out. He is a perfect 19-of-19 on extra points.

The punter is Ryan Wright, who has been called on to punt 41 times for an average of 48.1 yards. He is fourth in net average (44.4 yards), with 15 inside-the-20 punts and just one touchback. Only 16 of his punts have been returned for an average of 8.2 yards.

The Vikings’ main kick and punt returner is rookie wide receiver Myles Price, who has returned 38 kickoffs for an average of 25.9 yards per return and 25 punts for an average of 10.7 yards per return.

“He had a 43-yard punt return last week and two 18-yard punt returns,” special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia said. “He’s a dangerous player. He’s got great speed. He’s an aggressive guy to the ball.”

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