Three Reasons Why Packers Will ‘Upset’ Eagles for Statement Victory

The Green Bay Packers will face a daunting challenge in a primetime showdown against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lambeau Field. Here are three reasons why they’ll earn a critical victory.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) runs during the second half against the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 1.5-point favorites for Monday night’s home game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Still, it almost feels like a Packers victory would be an upset – maybe even a big upset.

For good reason. The Eagles, who beat the Packers twice last season, are coming off their bye. While the Packers will limp into the game, especially on offense, the Eagles are healthy and grew stronger at the trade deadline.

Nonetheless, here are three reasons why the Packers will earn a statement victory over the defending Super Bowl champions.

1. The Micah Parsons Pass Rush

In last week’s loss to the Carolina Panthers, Micah Parsons was missing in action. After entering the game with the NFL lead in pressures, he didn’t have any, according to Next Gen Stats. It wasn’t all Parsons’ fault, though. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young dropped back to pass 21 times. Most of them were quick throws meant to neutralize Parsons and Rashan Gary.

The Eagles prefer a longer-developing passing attack meant to get DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown into position to make explosive plays.

According to Pro Football Focus, 34 quarterbacks have dropped back to pass at least 140 times. From that group, Hurts’ time to throw of 3.17 seconds trails only Chicago’s Caleb Williams (3.34). Whether that’s schemed plays or Hurts using his legs to extend, the payoff is obvious. When Hurts takes 2.50 seconds or longer, he’s thrown eight touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7) is sacked by Green Bay Packers defensive lineman Micah Parsons. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

That style creates big plays for the Eagles but also provides some opportunities for Green Bay. Even with one of most vaunted offensive lines in the NFL, Hurts has been sacked 25 times. That’s the sixth-most in the league.

Hurts is protected by a sensational set of tackles. According to PFF, left tackle Jordan Mailata has allowed one sack this season and right tackle Lane Johnson has allowed zero. Other than a sack in last year’s Super Bowl, PFF hasn’t charged Johnson with a sack since Week 14 of the 2023 season against Parsons and the Cowboys.

Parsons isn’t going to beat Johnson for three sacks. Rather, he said, it’s about making a play or two that “changes” the game.

“Both. I want to win every time,” Parsons said when asked if his mindset is to win every snap or use some snaps to set up others. “It’s like saying how do you slow the Eagles down? You don’t. You understand they’ve got one of the best backs, one of the best receiver duos, one of the best tight ends and the best offensive lines in the game. You don’t. They’re going to get theirs.

“Their playmakers are going to make plays, but how do we limit those plays? And when you talk about Lane Johnson and Jordan, it’s like, OK, you know they’re going to set good, you know they’re going to block good, you know they’re going to use good hands and fundamentals and they’re going to use some veteran savvy (and) things to slow you down. But it’s like, how do you stay aggressive, how do you stay attacking and how do you keep overcoming the things that they’re going to throw at you? And resiliency’s the key. I just know I’ve got to outwork them on Monday.”

Some of that work could come over backup center Brett Toth as defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley works to get Parsons in some playmaking positions.

2. Something Old, Something New

Sort of lost in the shuffle of last week’s loss to Carolina was the partial revival of Green Bay’s rushing attack. Josh Jacobs carried 17 times for 87 yards. His 5.1-yard average was his second-best of the season, and he extended his latest touchdown streak to five games.

Perhaps most importantly, he averaged a season-high 1.59 yards before contact. So, the maligned offensive line got Jacobs going, and he paid it off with a season-high-tying two runs of 15-plus yards.

“We haven’t hit as many explosive runs as we had in the past but … last game was pretty good,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “You go back and watch the run game, you’re like, ‘OK, we ran the ball pretty well.’

“It’s just one of those things, we’ve got to keep working, keep working on our fundamentals. There’s always things to clean up, whether it’s scheme or whether it’s fundamentals or whatever it is. So, I’m not going to lose faith in that. I love Josh Jacobs. I love how he’s running. He’s doing a great job. So, yeah, I think it’s only a matter of time before we start getting it going.”

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs breaks into the open field against the Eagles in Brazil. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Jacobs should be pretty fresh. His 21 touches against Carolina came on the heels of 16 against Pittsburgh and 14 against Arizona.

The Eagles enter the game ranked 20th with 4.44 yards allowed per carry. They allowed more than 100 yards in each of the first six before stopping the Vikings (without Aaron Jones) and the Giants (without Cam Skattebo). They are slightly below average in missed-tackle percentage, according to SportRadar.

Jacobs doesn’t need to run it for 150 yards on 25 carries. But there will be an opportunity to keep Green Bay’s offense in advantageous down-and-distance situations.

If Jacobs is something old, Luke Musgrave in place of Tucker Kraft at tight end is something new. The Packers obviously are not better without Kraft. But having to switch gears could force coach Matt LaFleur and his offensive staff into some fresh ideas and unscouted looks.

“He’s going to step up, for sure,” receiver Christian Watson said of tight end Luke Musgrave. “I’ve seen the way he’s worked. Obviously, with Tuck stepping into the role and being the player that Tuck is, it’s obviously put him a little bit on the back burner, but I think that we’re all confident in what Luke brings to the offense when he’s able to be out there. So, I’m excited to see him get a little bit of spotlight again.”

3. These Are Not the Same Eagles

Last season, the Eagles went 14-3. They won six games by double digits and finished second in the NFL in scoring differential and yardage differential. That’s before sweeping to the Super Bowl behind four wins by a combined 68 points. 

Defensively, the Eagles finished first in yards allowed per game and yards allowed per play. Offensively, they were eighth in yards per game. Saquon Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards and averaged 125.3 yards per game.

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) rushes the ball against the Green Bay Packers. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

This year, the Eagles are humming along at 6-2 but the level of dominance is absent. They are 12th in scoring differential but 23rd in yardage differential. Their 38-20 win over the injury-plagued Giants before the bye is their only two-score win.

Entering Monday night, the Eagles are 20th in yards allowed per game and 16th in yards allowed per play. On the other side of the ball, Barkley’s production has been cut almost in half with 64.9 rushing yards per game. His yards per carry is down from 5.8 to 4.1.

None of this is to dismiss the Eagles’ ability to win on Monday night or win another Super Bowl. Jalen Hurts has thrown 15 touchdown passes with only one interception. The Eagles have only three turnovers. The trade for Jaelan Phillips and the return of Nolan Smith might have fixed their biggest weakness, which has been their pass rush.

“It’s funny when you watch the tape versus when you see the numbers,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “It’s kind of polarizing, I would say, because you look on offense and on defense, it’s a very difficult team on both sides of the football and even on special teams, as well. So, I do think they’re a complete football team, and sometimes the numbers kind of get skewed in regards to what you actually are seeing on tape.”

Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is 4-0 after the bye but LaFleur is 5-0 at home on Monday nights. The Packers have averaged 34 points in primetime games this season, with Jordan Love fashioning a spectacular 122.5 passer rating with eight touchdowns.

“I think quarterbacks have done a good job of making plays, scrambling, doing some off-schedule things, because they do a good job initially with some of their coverages and being sticky,” Love said. “There’s definitely plays to be made out there. We’ve just got to go hit.”

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