What Would It Cost Packers to Get First-Round Draft Pick Tonight?

The NFL Draft will begin on Thursday night.

Just not in Green Bay.

The happy byproduct of the blockbuster Micah Parsons trade, the Packers won’t have a first-round pick.

Probably?

“The phones won’t be as busy, that’s for sure, but we’re going to kind of keep our ears open,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said on Tuesday.

It would be improbable, yes, but it definitely would not be impossible for the Packers to procure a first-round pick if Gutekunst picks up the phone on Thursday night and likes what he hears.

Let’s Make a Deal

There are two barriers for the Packers. They are big but not insurmountable.

One, it would be quite a leap to get from their first pick at No. 52 of the second round to pick No. 32, the last pick of the first round.

Two, the Packers don’t have a lot of draft picks to offer in a trade.

Using the Jimmie Johnson trade-value chart at Drafttek, the Super Bowl-champion Seattle Seahawks have the 32nd pick. That slot is valued at 590 points. Green Bay’s pick at No. 52 of the second round is worth 380 points and its pick at No. 84 of the third round is worth 170 points. That’s 550 points. Throwing in the fourth-rounder pushes the total to 594 points.

By math, it works. And Seahawks general manager John Schneider, who only has four picks at his disposal, has said he wants more picks. But Gutekunst typically wants more picks, too.

There’s also a Bill Belichick-related model of the trade chart. Seattle’s pick at No. 32 is worth 184 points. Green Bay’s second-, third- and fourth-round picks are worth exactly 184 points. So, again, the math says it works.

Would it work for Gutekunst, though? After picking at No. 32, he wouldn’t have another pick until No. 153 of the fifth round. His remaining picks would be Nos. 153 and 160 of the fifth, No. 201 of the sixth and Nos. 236 and 255 of the seventh.

If he thinks sitting through 51 picks before going on the clock would be an interminable wait, imagine watching 120 players go off the board and sitting out the second, third and fourth rounds.

He could also trade a player to help facilitate a trade, though the Dontayvion Wicks trade might have been the one position of surplus.

Borrowing From 2027

The ace up Gutekunst’s sleeve is next year’s draft. He doesn’t have a first-round pick for that one, either. What he will have are:

Their own pick in the second round.

The potential of two picks in the third round (the Malik Willis compensatory pick, assuming he stays healthy and plays enough snaps).

Three picks in the fourth round (the Romeo Doubs compensatory pick and the Rashan Gary trade).

Two picks in the fifth round (the Quay Walker compensatory pick).

Two picks in the sixth round (the Wicks trade, which offsets last year’s acquisition of Darian Kinnard, and the Kingsley Enagbare compensatory pick).

And their own pick in the seventh round.

That’s 11 picks, and they’re all tradeable. Usually in draft-weekend trades, future draft picks are viewed as less valuable than current draft picks. However, the 2027 draft is supposed to be strong, so maybe there wouldn’t be any depreciation.

“We’re sitting with eight picks right now,” Gutekunst said. “The compensatory formula, we won’t know exactly what we have for next year, but we feel pretty good about the amount of picks we’re going to have next year. So, I do feel like if, if the right player were there, that we would be able to go get him.”

Does that include a first-rounder?

It is interesting that Gutekunst used one of his so-called 30 visits on Arizona State offensive tackle Max Iheanachor. Iheanachor is No. 29 on the Consensus Big Board, No. 31 for NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah and No. 33 for The Athletic’s Dane Brugler.

More likely, that visit was used on a player who might fall far enough into the second round to tempt Gutekunst. On the other hand, he sent a scout to the personal pro day of Arizona receiver Jordyn Tyson, who is a projected top-20 pick.

The More Likely Scenario

Gutekunst said it would be a “little bit more fun” than usual this year without the chaos that comes with making a first-round pick.

If Gutekunst makes a move, it’s more likely to be moving up into the second round. With the potential of sitting through the entire first round and the start of the second round, maybe he’ll get antsy about an hour into Friday’s festivities.

“It’s always hard watching good players come off the board, particularly ones – obviously, we get to know these guys very well, and when you see them get selected, it’s tough no matter where you’re picking,” he said. “If we end up waiting 51 picks before we pick, that’ll be a long time and, hopefully, I have the patience and the discipline to do that.

“But not unlike any other draft, we’ll have some players that probably we’ll talk about moving up to go get. I’m sure there’ll be some scenarios to move back, as well. But, yeah, it’s always hard to watch these players we’ve studied so thoroughly over the last few months and year, really, to come off and not help the Green Bay Packers right now.”

So, chances are Gutekunst will enjoy the draft from Lambeau Field, just like everyone else on their couch at home, as nothing more than interested bystanders.

Armed with eight picks this week, Gutekunst will rely on months of work by himself and his team of scouts to land impact players, whatever the round.

“Picking higher is always better as far as finding talent, but I’d rather pick 32 every year, you know,” he said. “You guys know, all you have to do is look back at the draft. There’s good players to be found throughout this draft. There’s great players to be found throughout the draft.

“So, I think it’s something we’ve been pretty used to around here. This is the first time entering a draft that I can remember that we didn’t have a first-round pick. There’s a couple that we traded out of, so that’s been different. But the player we got for that pick, I’m good with.”

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