Will This Be Must-Win Game for Packers? Here’s What History Says

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers were in position to be 1-0. Instead, the offensive line stopped blocking for the final 20 minutes and the Packers got run out of U.S. Bank Stadium with a 39-22 defeat at the hands of the rival Vikings.

It was a historic loss. No team had ever blown so big of a lead so late in the game and lost by so many points.

But what’s done is done. The Packers lost, and now they have to regroup.

“I’m done dwelling on that game,” tight end Tucker Kraft said.

To say the Packers will be facing a must-win game at the New York Jets on Sunday wouldn’t be accurate. But it’s not far off the mark.

Outlook for 1-1 vs. 0-2

According to Rotowire, here is the breakdown through two games over the past decade.

Teams that start 2-0 have a 39.3 percent chance of winning the division, 66.7 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, 39.3 percent chance of reaching the divisional round, 22.6 percent chance of advancing to the conference championship game, 11.9 percent chance of getting to the Super Bowl and a 4.8 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Teams that start 1-1 have a 27.5 percent chance of winning the division, 45.1 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, 28.2 percent chance of reaching the divisional round, 14.1 percent chance of advancing to the conference championship game, 7.0 percent chance of getting to the Super Bowl and a 4.2 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Teams that start 0-2 have a 9.5 percent chance of winning the division, 14.3 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, 8.3 percent chance of reaching the divisional round and a 22.6 percent chance of advancing to the conference championship game. Only one team reached the Super Bowl (1.2 percent) and no team won the Super Bowl.

Interestingly, not all 1-1 teams are the same. Teams that won in Week 1 and lost in Week 2 have a 51.4 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs. Teams that lost in Week 1 and rebounded to win in Week 2, which the Packers are trying to do, have a 38.9 percent chance of advancing to the postseason. However, the Week 1 losers/Week 2 winners have slightly better chances of reaching the divisional round and the Super Bowl.

The last three Super Bowl winners – the Chiefs in 2023, the Eagles in 2024 and the Seahawks in 2025 – started 1-1.

Obviously, moving from 16 games to 17 and expanding the playoff field to seven teams in each conference means there’s a bit more margin for error for teams that face-plant out of the starting gates.

Since the dawn of the 14-team playoff in 2023, 28 teams started 0-2. Seven reached the playoffs – a 25.0 percent success rate – including the Panthers, Bears and Texans last season.

1-0 This Week Is Mission for Packers

Working in the Packers’ favor: They haven’t started 0-2 since 2006, the first season under former coach Mike McCarthy. Under coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 6-1 in Week 2.

On the other hand, according to Rotowire, teams that start 0-1 by losing by 14-plus points have only an 18.8 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, no matter what happens in Week 2. Teams that lose by eight points or less have a 29.1 percent chance of reaching the postseason.

Whatever the record – 2-0, 1-1 or 0-2 – the only thing that matters for the Packers is going 1-0 this week against the Jets.

“1-0. Broken record,” Kraft said. “I say it every time. We just have to go 1-0. Win your rep. Each guy across the board consistently winning their one-on-one matchup. That’s what it depends on.”

That was LaFleur’s message to his team.

“Honestly, the same thing he probably told you guys is what he told us – the 1-0,” running back MarShawn Lloyd said. “Just keep everything 1-0. The 1-0 mentality – you’ve got to forget what happened in the past and understand that each week is a new week to get better, a new week to understand how to attack things. I feel like that’s the biggest thing.”

The starting point starts with the offensive line having a bounce-back performance. Quarterback Jordan Love hit on that 1-0 theme while talking about his front wall on Wednesday.

“I’ve always got that faith,” he said. “It’s one of those things, we all know what it is. We’ve got to be better. They’ve got to be better. We’ve got some situations where, communication-wise, we all can clean some stuff up and make sure everybody’s on the same page and locked in. We know what it is. We’ve got some work to do to improve and get better. That’s everybody on this football team.

“So, I’m always going to have that confidence in those guys that, hey, we’ll clean this stuff up, we’ll get better. I’m going to keep having faith in everybody in this locker room. It’s all about that mindset of trying to go 1-0 this week and putting all of our focus on the Jets.”

Who's up? Who's down?

Here's our Packers stock report from Week 1 and what it means moving into Week 2. 📈📉https://t.co/vgylpG2P1k
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 16, 2026

SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE DAILY PACKERS NEWSLETTER

Add us as a preferred source on Google