Carolina Panthers Get Brutal, Unfair, Inaccurate Projection for 2026 NFL Season

The Carolina Panthers are one of the most popular regression picks this season. They won eight games and the division, granting them a brutal first-place schedule. It is, by some metrics, a top-five schedule in terms of difficulty.

The tightness of the division suggests they might not repeat, and the schedule difficulty suggests, to some, that they might end up in last place after being in first a year ago. ESPN's FPI is no different, but it's far more brutal in its projection.

According to it, the Panthers are going to be the seventh-worst team in football this year, the worst in the NFC South, and the second-worst in the entire NFC. That's an unfair and inaccurate assessment of the Panthers.

ESPN's FPI projections are dead wrong about the Panthers

Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales during the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The Panthers may not repeat as division champions. They are in a tight division and will have the hardest schedule and worst bye week placement of all four NFC South teams. A return trip to the playoffs is hard to imagine.

However, picking in the top 10 in the 2027 NFL draft feels ridiculous. FPI takes into account a lot of metrics and a lot of analytics to come up with a data-based projection, but it feels like this is ignoring a whole lot of context.

We could focus on the fact that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were one of the worst teams in the NFL in the second half last season and got overall worse in the offseason but are somehow well above all other NFC South teams.

We could focus on the fact that the New Orleans Saints slightly outrank the Panthers here because of a tiny sample size of games from a rookie QB who had almost a decade in college, or the fact that the Panthers swept the Falcons, who also didn't have a great offseason, and are ranked lower.

Ultimately, we'll just focus on the ridiculous nature of Carolina being 26th. FPI's model is expecting the offense to be similar but the defense to regress because, as Seth Walder wrote, "offense is more stable year-to-year than defense."

They expect the Seattle Seahawks to regress on defense, which is why they're not the number one team. The Panthers didn't have a good offense, and if they expect the defense to get worse, then 26th makes sense. But how can anyone expect the defense to be worse?

On that side of the ball, the Panthers pretty much shored every single hole they had. They have a legitimate nose tackle now in Lee Hunter, who will open things up for Derrick Brown and others up front.

Texas Tech defensive lineman Lee Hunter (DL15) runs the 40-yard dash during the NFL Scouting Combine | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Panthers now have a three-man fight for the second safety spot that should, in theory, produce a solid player to start. They added Devin Lloyd to arguably the worst starting linebacker duo in the NFL, so that's one of the biggest upgrades any team made this offseason.

Carolina even added Jaelan Phillips, one of the best pressure edges in the entire NFL, to a dead-end pass rush. In every conceivable way, the Panthers' defense is so much better, so it's ridiculous to think regression of any kind is in store.

On offense, the Panthers may well be stable, but they also patched up several key spots. Jonathon Brooks looks healthy and capable of replacing Rico Dowdle, who wasn't even that good, as we proved in another article.

The Panthers aren't relying solely on Xavier Legette, a bust at this point, to be the WR3 behind two good players in Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker. At left tackle and center, the offensive line is better, too.

They improved across the board, and while football isn't played on paper, the projections are made on paper, and this just looks silly.

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