NFL analyst predicts breakout game for Michael Penix Jr. vs. Panthers

The Panthers can sweep division rival Atlanta for the first time since 2013. That won’t happen as the Falcons’ quarterback is predicted to put up big numbers.

Sep 21, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) throws a pass during the first half of a game between Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cory Knowlton-Imagn Images | Cory Knowlton-Imagn Images

After 10 weeks and one game, the often-maligned NFC South is separated by four games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, per usual, sit atop the division with a 6-3 record. Next in line are the Carolina Panthers (5-5), Atlanta Falcons (3-6), and New Orleans Saints (2-8).

While the Bucs are in Buffalo and the Saints are off, the Panthers and Falcons renew acquaintances for the second time this season. Back in Week 3 at Charlotte, Dave Canales’s team got its first victory of the season courtesy of a 30-0 shutout.

The rematch is later today at Atlanta. Earlier this week, Andrew Buller-Russ of Sportsnaut came out with one bold prediction for each of the NFL's 15 games. He sees Falcons’ second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. enjoying a big outing,

“Penix is only 11 starts into his NFL career,” said Buller-Russ, “but he still hasn’t had a big breakout performance that suggests he can be one of the league’s most productive passers. Penix’s career-high still sits at 313 yards.”

That effort came in Week 4 this season in the Falcons’ 34-27 home win against the Washington Commanders. Since then, he has seen his passing yardage totals decline in each game. In his last four outings, he’s thrown five touchdown passes without an interception. However, Penix has been sacked eight times and lost a pair of fumbles in those contests.

Nov 9, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) makes a one handed catch as Carolina Panthers cornerback Chau Smith-Wade (26) defends during the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

“He’s struggled greatly with completing a respectful amount of passes,” added Buller-Russ, “sitting at just 53.4 percent over the past three games. Carolina’s defense has improved drastically, but they’re still prone to big plays, ranking 25th in yards per pass attempt.”

The latter was evident in the Panthers’ 17-7 home loss to New Orleans last Sunday. Saints’ rookie quarterback Tyler Shough lit up Ejiro Evero’s secondary for gains of 62, 52, and 30 yards—two of those for touchdowns. In this year's first meeting with the Panthers, Penix threw for only 172 yards and was picked off twice--one of those returned for a touchdown.

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