3 Trades Patriots Could Make to Acquire 3rd Overall Pick From Lions
Detroit Lions general manager Bob Quinn has made it clear he is willing to have discussions with teams about trading the 3rd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. While we don't know if the New England Patriots have yet been involved in those discussions with Detroit, we do know there have been talks outside the organization about the Patriots possibility moving up in the draft to select their new quarterback of the future.
Now, with the Lions having close ties with the Patriots because of Matt Patricia, and the 3rd overall pick being a great place to select one of this year's top QB prospects, it's not hard to see how the possibility exists that a deal could be reached between the two teams. The only question the remains: How could New England pull it off?
Here are three trades the Patriots could potentially pull off in order to acquire the 3rd overall pick from the Lions, and seemingly draft a quarterback with that pick:
Scenario 1: Trade the 23rd, 87th, 98th, 100th, 204th overall picks and a 2021 first round pick, second round pick, and third round pick for the 3rd overall pick.
How do you figure that it would require this much to get that third overall pick? Well, trade charts, like the famous Jimmy Johnson model, will tell everyone that it would require a lot less draft picks to acquire the third overall pick. What that does not take into account is the fact that teams trading into the top five for a quarterback almost always have to dramatically overpay to get there.
The Los Angeles Rams moved up fifteen spots to select Jared Goff first overall in the 2016 NFL Draft. They had to sacrifice two first round picks, two second round picks, and two third round picks to do so. This was because they moved into the top five to grab a quarterback and had to move up 15 spots to do such.
With the Patriots not having a second round pick this year, they would need to pay two extra third rounders and a sixth round pick to come close to replicating the value of one second round pick.
With so many holes on New England's roster and the draft being so important to this year's New England squad, it's hard to see how someone could justify pulling this off. The quarterback drafted at No. 3 would need to become an Andrew Luck or Patrick Mahomes-level QB for this to pay off, which would obviously be a very tall task.
Detroit would likely have no problem with this deal, the question is whether the Patriots would have an issue with it. The answer in all likelihood would be yes.
Scenario 2: Joe Thuney and the 23rd overall pick for the 3rd overall pick.
This seems like the best trade scenario for both sides. While losing Joe Thuney is a stinger, New England trades him in this scenario if they cannot come to an agreement on a contact extension after he signed the franchise tag. If Thuney cannot be re-signed, he will almost definitely leave in free agency next offseason. So getting strong compensation for a player of Thuney's caliber would make sense if it meant getting the quarterback of the future for the Patriots.
The Lions - who have a need at offensive guard - have very little options to work with. Thuney - who is familiar with several Detroit staff members and players from previous ties with the Patriots - is one of the top guards in the NFL. Getting one of the best guards in football, just to move down 20 spots in the draft should be intriguing for Detroit, which makes this trade the most feasible option for New England.
Scenario 3: Stephon Gilmore and the 87th and 98th overall picks for the 3rd overall pick.
The Lions would be at a crossroads if Gilmore were on the table. They traded away Darius Slay - another really good corner - because he was on a large contract and no longer wanted to be with the team.
If Detroit were to stay put at No. 3, they would in all likelihood select Ohio State's star cornerback, Jeffery Okudah. He seems to be the consensus pick for the Lions at that spot.
Okudah is projected to become a stud. So why trade for Gilmore when they could have a star rookie corner on a rookie deal? It is certainly a valid question. However, it some ways it could be worth it for Matt Patricia to bring in not only a guy who he has worked with in the past, but also the reigning DPOY.
The question Detroit would have to answer is if Okudah is a Gilmore-level player, which after Gilmore had one of the greatest seasons a cornerback has had in a long time in the NFL, that's a high bar to reach.
The enticing thought process would be taking a proven commodity at their number one position of need and then getting two third round picks as well in a loaded draft class. This could put any team on the fast track to success.
Whether it's worth it for the Lions is for them to decide and would weigh heavily on their scouting process with Okudah and what they think of him. As for New England, giving away your best player would not be fun, along with two third round picks in addition.
However, J.C. Jackson and Jonathan Jones are more than capable of being number one and number two guys. Plus, Joejuan Williams could end up panning out as well and Jason McCourty is still in the mix as a solid number No. 3. Trading Gilmore would also free up a plethora of cap space that could be used to extend players like Dont'a Hightower, Joe Thuney, David Andrews and more. That money could also be used next year to sign some noteworthy free agents in a very strong free agent class.
That 2021 free agent class includes a real strong receiver core, and signing just one of them could be more than enough for whichever quarterback the Patriots select with the 3rd overall pick.
If trading your best player and two third rounders means getting a potential star quarterback, keeping your other first round pick, re-signing your best offensive lineman, and being able to sign a premier free agent next offseason, then trading away Gilmore may be in the best interest of the six-time Super Bowl champions.
Conclusion:
Are any of these trades worth it? They make sense and would most likely go through, however, in all three situations, the price tag is high to move up for a quarterback likely not named Joe Burrow. The case can be made with all three potential trades that New England is better off seeing what they have in Stidham in 2020 before they sacrifice that much in a trade for someone like Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert.
Trading up to the No. 3 pick would boil down to two factors for the Patriots: 1) How sold are the Patriots on Stidham 2) How sold are the Patriots on whichever quarterback they would select at No. 3, which would likely be Herbert or Tagovailoa.
Almost no one knows what the Patriots have in Jarrett Stidham, except the coaching staff to some extent, his teammates and Stidham himself. Since he is the projected starter for the 2020 season at the moment, he sets the bar for anything New England may do in the draft to acquire a quarterback. Any potential trade scenario that involves moving up to draft a QB will require Patriots brass to ask themselves these questions: How much better is this rookie quarterback than Stidham? How does this quarterback stack up to the rest of the league's quarterbacks? What opportunities in the draft, and/or players, are we forfeiting in this trade? And the most obvious one: Is this trade worth it?
While we do not know what their answers are to those questions, what we do know is New England is looking for their next starting QB now that Tom Brady is gone, and it remains to be seen if one of the quarterbacks they currently have on the roster can be a legitimate starter going forward. So, adding another highly-talented QB into the mix may be in the best interest of the organization, and that could be done by conducting a trade with the Lions.
