Which Kicker in 2020 Draft Class Could Have Named Called by Patriots?
The New England Patriots are now in the market for a kicker.
After a really tough season for veteran Stephen Gostkowski in 2019 (which was up-ended in October by a hip injury that landed him on injured reserve) where he only made 73.3% of his extra points, it seemed like the writing was on the wall for his tenure in New England to come to a screeching halt.
Gostkowski, age-35, was on the books for a cap hit of $5.45 million in 2020. That kind of cap hit for a team with extremely limited cap space wasn't going to work. That's why one of the longest tenured Patriots was released two weeks into free agency.
It's worth noting that the hire of Alabama's Joe Houston may have also spelled the end of the Gostkowski-era. The former special teams analyst with Nick Saban has now joined New England as an assistant special teams coordinator. The widely regarded coach has been previously dubbed as a guru or whisperer to the kicker position specifically. Once he was hired, the move had "looking to develop a new kicker" written all over it.
Now, scouting kickers can be a lot more statistical than other positions. In some ways, it can be a lot like baseball numbers since the majority of what scouts look at is whether the field goal was made or not and where the field goal was attempted from. Accuracy, precision, and consistency are key aspects to evaluating kickers. Aside from field goals, one also needs to take into account hang time and kick power on kickoffs in order to get the full picture. Lastly, scouts look at nuances in the kicker's form and his mentality/ability to perform under pressure.
With only three kickers in this year's draft, it's time to rank them and figure out which one can become the Patriots' next longtime place kicker, if any can for that matter.
3) J.J. Molson, UCLA
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In a chart I comprised, I gave kickers in this draft points for field goals made from distances 1-19, 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, and 50+. A field goal from 1-19 if made was worth a point, a field from 50+ if made was worth five points. Missed field goals from 1-19 deducted five points and a field goal missed from 50+ only deducted a point.
The next two prospects on this list scored significantly higher than UCLA's J.J. Molson, despite the No. 2 prospect on this list only having three years of kicking on the stat sheet compared to the No. 1 prospect and Molson's four. Molson scored a 71 while the other two scored well into the triple digits.
The chart largely measured accuracy and needless to say, Molson's accuracy is just not there. He only made 57.1% of his field goals last year despite only attempting two from 50+ (both of which were no good). At most, Molson finds a place on the practice squad in New England. However, even accomplishing that might take a great feat.
The only thing really going for Molson is his kickoff ability. He demonstrated good hang time there, kicking a touchback 72.5% of the time, and showed impressive ability as an onside kick specialist. But Patriots punter Jake Bailey can handle kickoff duties.
New England is the market for a field goal kicker, which is why this UCLA prospect isn't the right fit.
2). Tyler Bass, Georgia Southern
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Tyler Bass is a really solid prospect out of Georgia Southern who has the potential to have a successful NFL career. While his consistency doesn't compare to the next kicker on this list, he has lots of NFL-calibur tools that can help translate into longevity and success at the next level.
Bass kicked a little above 80% in his career at Georgia Southern, which is a really solid number. The problem is discrepancy in his numbers over the three years he spent at Georgia Southern. Starting in 2017, his accuracy was 78.9%. Then in 2018, he was at 90.5% while also attempting more field goals than the year before. Then all of a sudden, in 2019, he kicked at a low - 71.9%. That leaves scouts wondering which Tyler Bass they will get in the NFL.
If Bass were a tad more consistent and his 2019 percentage was several points closer to his 2017 number, Bass would probably be the number one kicker on this list because of his experience with game-winning field goals and performing under pressure. He has two game-winning kicks already under his belt, one in a 2018 Bowl win and one against South Alabama in 2019.
Bass is still a little raw as a kicker, meaning there is still some room for growth. This is really what should intrigue New England, as he is a strong kicker with a great mindset, solid tempo to get the ball in the air quickly, and a solid track record with room for improvement. With a few nuance form adjustments, Bass can really flourish in the NFL and be a kicker that the Patriots can rely upon. That being said, Bass shouldn't be counted on for immediate contributions while he is getting groomed to become the starter.
1). Rodrigo Blankenship, Georgia
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I want to start by saying that ranking Bass and Rodrigo Blankenship was hard. Blankenship is wildly more consistent. However, Bass could potentially have a higher ceiling.
With that being said, Blankenship is the highly-touted favorite amongst this class. With precision, accuracy, a big foot, and a shelf full of accolades, it makes sense that he is the consensus favorite kicker this year.
He has the strongest accuracy at 50+ yards amongst this group of prospects, kicking just above 66% on nine career attempts, with a career-long of 55 yards. Also, he modeled the most consistency over his four year career, only kicking below 80% in one year of his career. That year was his freshman year, where he kicked 77.8% as a walk-on.
The numbers are sound. His hang time and kick power on kickoffs stand out too. Overall, if you give Blankenship a tee with no wind and no one trying to contest his kick, the ball is soaring through the uprights from 55 yards easily. However, that is obviously a situation that he will never encounter in the NFL.
There are a couple really small nuances in his form that can be corrected. Those tiny nuances can sometimes cause him to drive kicks a little low. However, the bigger question mark lies in his ability to perform under pressure. With three blocked kicks in his career, along with some missed field goals in big moments and big games, it remains to be seen whether his big foot can find NFL success.
With a kicking guru like Houston - who knows Blakenship well from being in the same football conference (SEC) - the little things in his form should be easy enough to fix. However, does he have the mentality? This is the question to answer. It's easy enough to fix form, but it's much harder to fix the pressure aspect of his shortcomings.
Verdict
Choosing between Bass and Blankenship was a very tough decision. In the end, consistency weighed more than mentality. However, the gap between the two kickers is a lot closer than many have portrayed it as during this draft process. Blankenship will be drafted. Bass has a good shot to be. While it might seem weird for a team like the Patriots with a huge need at kicker to not jump at the number one consensus guy, the smart move might be to feel the waters and take Blankenship only if it seems right. It is important to know that there is no need for New England to pigeon-hole themselves into a spot where they take Blankenship too high and reach just to address a need. Bass could be just as good, if not better with proper development. Needless to say, the Patriots have two really solid potential options here.
