Patriots Three Keys to Victory vs. Texans

With the race to the coveted Super Bowl LX down to eight teams, the New England Patriots will look to take down the haunting defense of the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.

For New England, the Divisional Round of the playoffs come after the Patriots secured a 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers — a dominant defensive showing that saw opposing quarterback Justin Herbert be sacked six times. The Patriots' next opponent of the Texans — who earned the top Wild Card spot following a second-place finish in the AFC South —blew the game open in the fourth quarter to earn a 30-6 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Houston will visit Gillette Stadium on Jan. 18, with both teams looking to stay in the hunt for a championship.

Here are three key notes for fans to pay attention to for the Divisional matchup.

3. Matchup History, Maye Factor

Historically, the odds are in New England's favor. The Patriots have an 11-4 all time against Houston, including a 2-0 mark in the postseason.

See you in the Divisional Round.

Texans & Patriots Sunday at 3:00 PM on ESPN/ABC. pic.twitter.com/Rb44R29lCB
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 13, 2026

Most recently, the Texans and New England faced off in Week 6 of the 2024 season in a 41-21 loss for the Pats. The game marked quarterback Drake Maye's first career start in addition to Houston's first win in Foxborough. However, Maye is not the same QB he was back then.

During his first career start — Maye threw two interceptions, lost a fumble and was sacked four times. However, Maye now has more experience behind him and looks more comfortable in the pocket in addition to possessing a stronger set of decision-making skills in terms of ball security.

While this will be the toughest task for the second-year pro, if Maye can connect with Stefon Diggs and his other pass catchers in addition to building off the confidence that has been instilled in him throughout the year — the Patriots are certainly anything but out of the running.

2. Exploiting Houston's Offensive Line, Relying on Other Talent

Houston's offense line has seen better days — the Texas are ranked 30th in pass-blocking win rate and last in run-blocking win rate. For the New England franchise coming off the previously mentioned high-number of sacks against Herbert, this will be absolutely critical to exploit.

In addition, New England boasts robust talent across the entire roster. Budding young slot receiver Efton Chism has seen a huge jump in playing time and offensive statistics. Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson had the most rushing yards per attempt (5.1), tied for the most rushing touchdowns (nine) and had the second-most scrimmage yards (1,132) among rookies this season.

Dec 28, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Efton Chism III (86) celebrates after a catch against the New York Jets during the first quarter of the game at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

For Patriots fans it will be key to see if New England can execute across the entire roster and exploit any holes in the Houston offensive line.

1. Tackling the Monstrous Texans' Defense

Houston finished the regular season with the second-ranked unit in scoring defense (17.4 PPG) and expected points added, trailing only the Seattle Seahawks in both categories. The Texans are also the No. 1 ranked defense in EPA per drop-back.

New England head Coach Mike Vrabel said that as a result, his defensive game plan will be centered around precision.

"We want to try to be as precise as possible ... We're aiming for success and not perfection. Nobody's going to be perfect.," Vrabel said at his Jan. 16 media availability when asked if there was pressure on the Patriots in being perfect when facing off against the Houston defense. "We're going to need to be precise. We know how critical taking care of the football is in every game, especially against a team that's plus-16 in the turnover margin. But I've never once said that we have to be perfect at anything."

The Texans are a zone-based defense that structurally doesn't confuse many, which Houston does make up for with its skill. But if Vrabel and co. stick with being as precise as possible, perhaps the Patriots' dynasty really will have returned once and for all.

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