Five Bold Predictions for Patriots vs. Texans

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — With their Divisional Round showdown against the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium fast approaching, the New England Patriots are hoping to extend their first postseason run since 2021.

The Patriots enter this game having won 34 playoff games since team owner Robert Kraft bought the franchise in 1994. That total ranks third among ownership groups in NFL history and are the most by any team since he entered the NFL.

This game will mark the third meeting between the Patriots and Texans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs — the previous two coming in 2013 (a 41-28 Patriots victory) and again in 2017, which resulted in a 34-16 win for New England. Though the two teams did not play each other during the regular season, Houston and New England last faced off in Oct. 2024 — a matchup won by the Texans by a final score of 41-21. As such, New England brings a great deal of success in their head-to-head history against Houston.

In that vein, here are five bold predictions for this upcoming playoff matchup between two longstanding AFC rivals.

Drake Maye Beats the Texans With the Deep Ball

While he is often praised for his elite arm strength, as well as his exceptional athleticism, Maye owes a great deal of his success this season to his ability to execute explosive plays in the passing game. With Houston’s defense expected to pressure the Pats’ starter on each of his drop backs, he may look to test the open areas of the field with the deep ball.

Still, Maye must rid himself of the ball early — by either making the throw before the three-step, or by scrambling. In doing so, he can help to mitigate the impact of pass rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, who excel in generating pressure against opposing quarterbacks without needing to dial-up blitzes.

Should New England find success in holding the line, expect Maye and company to test the Texans’ secondary with a deep passing attack. Despite their front seven supremacy, Houston ranks only 14th in explosive pass play rate allowed. Accordingly, receivers Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte could help to take some of the workload pressure off of running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson.

The Patriots Control the Line of Scrimmage

Predicated on zone concepts, Houston’s defense possesses enough talent to rush the passer consistently without needing to rely on the blitz. Conversely, their defensive front creates pressure through skillful domination of the line of scrimmage, allowing them to keep additional defenders in coverage.

In order to counteract the Texans’ pressure, the Patriots offensive line must make every effort to block it from the outset. With Anderson preferring to align at left defensive end, he should see the majority of his snaps against Patriots right tackle Morgan Moses. As Anderson is a phenomenal athlete, look for the Pats to chip him early to disrupt his path to the quarterback. If left tackle Will Campbell — aided by left guard Jared Wilson and swing interior lineman Ben Brown — can win at least a handful of his matchups against Hunter, the Pats can keep control of the line at a neutral level.

Sep 28, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots offensive tackle Will Campbell (66) talks to a teammate during the second half against the Carolina Panthers at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images | Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Texans Receivers Offset the Loss of Nico Collins

After suffering a concussion in Houston’s Wild Card Round victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Texans star receiver has officially been ruled out after missing the entire week of practice. Still, Houston will prove that it has enough weapons to withstand the loss of its leading pass-catcher.

It should be noted that replacing Collins will not be easy. A Pro Bowler each of the last two seasons, Collins led Houston in 2025 with 71 receptions and 1,117 receiving yards — eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark for the third-straight season. Still, the Texans stable of pass-catchers provide C.J. Stroud with plenty of targets. In addition to incumbent starters Jaylen Higgins and Christian Kirk, reserve options Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel combined for 720 receiving yards and five touchdowns in the regular season. Each of the aforementioned options is capable of winning their battles on inside breaking routes in play action.

In that regard, Houston’s passing game will not only remain effective, but also capable of causing trouble for the Patriots defense.

Milton Williams Earns his 3rd Consecutive Postseason Game with 2+ Sacks

Since the return of defensive tackle Milton Williams, New England’s pass defense, as well as its run defense, has regained both its brawn and bravado. Primarily in the pass rush, Williams’ presence has helped unlock the agrression of defenders such as Christian Barmore, K’Lavon Chiasson and Christian Elliss.

Still, Williams’ himself is quite the potent pursuer of the quarterback. In fact, he enters this matchup having recorded back-to-back postseason games with at least two sacks. He had a pair of quarterback takedowns as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles in their Super Bowl LIX victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. He also notched two in New England's 16-3 win vs. Chargers. The only NFL player with at least two sacks in at least three straight postseason games was for Steelers’ linebacker LaMarr Woodley, earning two sacks in four straight postseason games. Williams will join Woodley as the only players to accomplish the feat in three straight games, by logging at least two on Stroud in this game.

Jan 11, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots defensive end Milton Williams (97) celebrates a sack during the second quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC Wild Card Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

An Andy Borregales Field Goal becomes the Difference Maker

Though predicting a game-winning field goal may be a bit too bold for the purposes of this exercise, the prowess of both teams — combined with the expected wintry weather conditions — all but assure a close game between the Texans and the Patriots. As such, their rookie kicker could help to tip the scales in favor of the home team.

Borregales, whom the Patriots selected at pick No. 182 in the sixth round of the 2025 NFL Draft, has become a fan favorite in short order. With the offense struggling to convert in meaningful scoring situations of their eventual 16-3 victory over the Bolts, the Pats’ rookie was the steady presence. Borregales converted on kicks from 23, 35 and 39 yards for a total of nine points. The University of Miami product finished the season having made 27 of 32 attempts (84.4%), including 4-of-4 from 50+ yards. He will put that ability to the test against the Texans, with one of his three-point scores making the difference between victory and defeat for the Patriots in the Divisional Round.

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