Will the Patriots Be Able to Beat 2025 Win Total?

Mike Vrabel was able to get things turned around quickly as the head coach of the New England Patriots. After winning a Super Bowl as a player with the franchise, Vrabel was able to come within one game of winning one as the coach.

Vrabel was able to get the most out of second-year quarterback Drake Maye, but some obvious holes kept them from competing against the Seattle Seahawks on the game's biggest stage.

The Pats went from one of the NFL's worst to one of its best in just one season, but caught flak from many for how soft their schedule was in 2025. With the schedule set to harden and issues to be worked out through the offseason, DraftKings has set the Patriots' win total at 9.5 games, with the over already being juiced to -145 odds and the under at plus odds of +120.

It appears that the public is already heavily on New England following their breakout 2025 campaign, but let's examine why they will, or will not, be able to reach the Vegas oddsmakers' line.

Why the Patriots WILL Go Over 9.5 Wins

Drake Mayed — Feb 8, 2026; Santa Clara, CA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

9.5 wins positions the Patriots as a top contender not only in the AFC, but in the entire league. Drake Maye exploded in his second season, being named the runner-up as the league MVP, and his continuity with Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels appears to be headed for sustained elite output. Adding further weapons on offense and giving Maye further protection will be key to keeping that side of the ball humming.

The Patriots have done a great job of competing while having solid salary cap space. If they can utilize their cap space and even create more by making cuts, allowing guys to walk in free agency, and contract restructures, there is no reason not to expect them to match their production or even improve upon it from just a season ago.

As long as the Patriots are able to fill in the right holes with the right players and can have sustained health, they can go out and win the AFC East despite the Buffalo Bills still going all-in on their contender window.

The defense has shown to be the Patriots' strength under Vrabel, and should continue to be the driving force for the success they are able to see.

Why the Patriots WLL NOT Go Over 9.5 Wins

Josh Allen Drake Maye — Jan 5, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Now for the not-so-fun part. After a season that saw them reach the Super Bowl with perhaps one of the easiest schedules in recent NFL memory, the Patriots' 2026 schedule shapes up to be more of a challenge.

2026 draws a tougher schedule for the Pats after finishing first in the division, and with the AFC still loaded with contenders like the Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers, it will be a dog fight. While the schedule isn't one of the most difficult, it's up there, especially with a mid-season gauntlet featuring games against the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Chiefs, Chargers, Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars, all of which have shown to be legit contenders heading into the 2026 season.

A regression to the mean is also a high worry here. Sustaining the level of health or concerns in areas like the offensive line could linger as the Patriots head into the 2026 season. The Patriots were able to skate by relatively clear in these areas, so it will be important to put the right pieces in place to make sure that 2025 wasn't an aberration.

Yes, the line feels aggressive for what is expected of the Patriots, but if they are able to keep everyone majority healthy and add the right talent to fix the holes in the roster, then they could sail right past 9.5 wins.

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