Predicting How Patriots, Bears Perform on TNF: Battle Between 2 Young QBs

Back in 2024, the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears — led by rookie quarterbacks — met in a defensive slugfest. Two years later, those same teams and those same quarterbacks have the opportunity to rack up plenty of points on Thursday Night Football.

But it's not going to be easy. Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel gave the Bears defense plenty of credit. The matchup of 4-2 teams in primetime will certainly gave some haymakers thrown from each side.

"They're creating some third and longer situations. They're winning on first and second down," Vrabel said Tuesday. "They disguise well. They blitz. Their off the ball players contribute heavily, I think, to the pressure."

Ahead of Week 7, Patriots On SI beat reporters Ethan Hurwitz and Zac Ventola break down how the game will unfold, which players will be x-factors and predict a final score. Who do you think is right?

Hurwitz: Limiting Caleb Williams' Talents

Nov 10, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) passes against the New England Patriots during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Caleb Williams helped lead the Bears to the postseason in 2025, but has dealt with injuries this year. When he's healthy, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The Patriots will have to find a way to limit his production and force the Bears to churn out first downs slowly.

The Patriots have gotten elite prouction from their young pass rushers, including Elijah Ponder — who's recorded half a sack in five-straight games. If they can start to make things hairy for Williams in the pocket and force him to move around on a hamstring that forced him to miss Week 5, there's a good shot New England comes out on top.

X-Factor: S Kevin Byard

Byard, one of the Patriots' biggest free agent signings from this offseason, spent the last two seasons with the Bears. He'll need to have a major impact against his former team, especially when it comes to trying to neutralize the arm talents that Williams possesses. The Patriots secondary struggled at times on Sunday, and it would be a great time to force some turnovers (Byard, the NFL's leader interceptions from a season ago, is yet to grab his first).

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 31, Bears 24

The Patriots are rolling right now and they have a real shot to land a big blow to kick off Week 7. Yes, the Bears will score points — that's just part of the Ben Johnson experience. But the Patriots have found a groove offensively, and despite the offensive line injuries, they'll find a way to pull out their fourth-straight victory.

Ventola:

Nov 10, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (29) tackles New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Quite simply, the Bears may be one of the three most difficult opponents on the Patriots’ schedule this season. Chicago has been battle-tested against playoff-caliber squads such as the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons. Plus, third-year quarterback Caleb Williams is one of the most dynamic players in the NFL.

With the Patriots still going through a slew of injuries, this game may decide how much I am drinking the Kool-Aid of this New England squad. Chicago’s offense tallies the fifth-most yards per game in the NFL, while its defense allows the seventh-fewest. All-in-all, it would be a shocking success if the Patriots can march into Soldier Field and take down the Bears on prime-time television.

X-Factor: EDGE Elijah Ponder

New England will need to put pressure on Chicago to have any chance at a win. Last week, Williams went a perfect 24/24 passing in clean pockets against the Falcons, per Next Gen Stats. Plus, the team averages the most rushing yards per game in the NFL at more than 160. Fortunately for the Patriots, Ponder sits top-three in the league in both sacks and tackles for losses. The 24-year-old may be New England’s best chance at slowing down the high-powered Chicago offense.

Caleb Williams was a perfect 24/24 for 248 yards from a clean pocket in the Bears' Week 6 win over the Falcons.

His 24 attempts are the most without an incompletion from a clean pocket in a game since at least 2018.

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— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 18, 2026

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 34, Bears 30

The name of the game for the Patriots’ defense on Thursday is to bend, but not break. The Bears’ offense is too talented to be fully contained the entire night. However, if New England can hold Chicago to a few field goals (or force a handful of turnovers on downs), that should be enough for quarterback Drake Maye to work with. Plus, I’d expect a bounce-back performance from wide receiver A.J. Brown. Ultimately, as long as the Patriots can contain the Bears to a sub-35-point performance, I anticipate a win for New England.

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