Patriots vs. Broncos: Three Bold Predictions for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game

The Patriots are headed to Denver to take on the Broncos, with an appearance in Super Bowl LX on the line.

Drake Maye and the Patriots are on the door step of the Super Bowl. | Winslow Townson/Getty Images.

It all comes down to this in the AFC, as the Broncos get set to welcome the Patriots to Denver on Sunday afternoon for the conference championship and—most importantly—the right to advance to Super Bowl LX.

New England comes into this one at 16–3 so far this season (regular season and playoff record combined) and winners of 14 of their last 15 after a 1–2 start to the campaign. Despite leaning on MVP candidate and second-team All-Pro quarterback Drake Maye for much of the season, it’s been the Patriots’ defense that’s carried them through this point of the playoffs—forcing six total turnovers on opposing signal callers Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud over the past two games.

The Broncos, meanwhile, enter Sunday afternoon at 15–3 while boasting one of the league’s most ferocious defensive fronts. Throughout the regular season, Denver led the NFL in sacks (68) while also posting the league’s second-highest pressure rate (40.7%). Said dominance carried into last week’s divisional round matchup when they brought down Bills quarterback Josh Allen three times in a 33–30 overtime win. Unfortunately, as we’ll get to, Denver will be without quarterback Bo Nix for the remainder of the postseason after he broke a bone in his ankle last Sunday.

We’re in for quite the chess match between two of the league’s best from Empower Field at Mile High. Here are three bold predictions for Patriots vs. Broncos.

Jarrett Stidham will throw two touchdowns while committing zero turnovers

Jarrett Stidham is playing with house money on Sunday. | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Taking over for Nix on Sunday afternoon will be backup Jarrett Stidham, a seventh-year pro who will look to lead Denver back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2013.

Stidham, 29, has appeared in 20 games since being drafted by none other than the Patriots in 2019—starting four of them while posting a 1–3 record. For his career, he’s completed 59.4% of his passes for 1,422 yards, with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions.

MORE: Broncos QB Depth Chart: Who’s Next Up After Bo Nix’s Injury?

While Stidham’s first pass attempt on Sunday afternoon will be his first in an NFL game (not including preseason) in over two years, if there’s any coach you’d want at the helm to prepare a quarterback for a moment like this, it’s Sean Payton—who, like his Broncos players, has exuded plenty of confidence in the signal-caller this week.

Look for Payton to dial up a game plan that plays to Stidham’s strengths, allows him to manage the game effectively, protect the football, and even throw a couple of touchdowns against this Patriots defense.

Milton Williams and Christian Barmore will dominate the interior, combining for four-plus sacks of Stidham

Barmore and Williams have been wreaking havoc on the inside for the Patriots. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

While Sunday may see Stidham—who’s ultimately playing with house money in this one—sling the rock a bit, it could also line up New England’s elite defensive interior to have a field day.

Throughout the first two games of their playoff run, the Patriots have sacked opposing quarterbacks Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud a combined nine times—with star free agent acquisition Milton Williams accounting for two of them. Additionally, while Christian Barmore has yet to record a sack this postseason, he dominated Broncos guard Quinn Meinerz & Co. the last time these two teams met in 2023—sacking Russell Wilson three times in a 26–23 win.

While Stidham will have fresh eyes, he also hasn’t had to navigate a live pocket in quite some time. As such, I’m going with Williams and Barmore to combine for four-plus sacks of the signal caller on Sunday.

Patriots will win relatively low-scoring game against Broncos, returning to Super Bowl for first time since 2018–19

Drake Maye has the Patriots back in the AFC championship. | David Butler II-Imagn Images

While the Nix injury is front and center in this one—and seems to be the next chapter of what’s lined up as a storybook season for the Patriots—don’t count Denver out of making this a close contest. Not only do they sport an undeniable defense, but also a coach in Payton who's won the big one before.

In the end, however, it’s hard to think New England won’t come out of Sunday afternoon victorious. Behind Coach of the Year candidate Mike Vrabel’s leadership—and a fourth-quarter touchdown pass from Maye to Stefon Diggs—I'm predicting the Patriots to win this one 24–14 and advance to their first Super Bowl since the 2018–19 season.

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