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Las Vegas Raiders 2026 Final Regular Season Prediction: What Changed

Raiders 2026: Insider prediction—what’s changed in Vegas’s final regular season outlook and how it impacts playoff hopes.
Allegiant Stadium
Allegiant Stadium | Dexter Ernest Wayne Carpenter, Sports Illustrated

In this story:

HENDERSON, Nev.—The Las Vegas Raiders will kick off the 2026 NFL regular season on Sunday.

They will host the Miami Dolphins at Allegiant Stadium for a 1:25 PM PT kickoff.

John Spytek, Mark Davis
John Spytek, Mark Davis | Darrell Craig Harris, On SI

To say that the Raider Nation, a fan base that sees their identification with the storied franchise as a way of life, is excited would be an understatement.

With that said, the Silver and Black are in the midst of a major Raiders rebuild, and with that, there comes a healthy dose of reality and patience.

What We Know

Las Vegas Raiders GM John Spytek, and minority owner Tom Brady
Las Vegas Raiders GM John Spytek, and minority owner Tom Brady | Darrell Craig Harris, On SI

I have previously discussed the three things we know for sure about this franchise, but I've also watched the OTAs, minicamps, and training camp. At the same time, the roster is much better, and the team is finally getting healthy, so they'll take their lumps in 2026.

Last May, when the NFL 2026 schedule was released, I gave my original season prediction.

As I do every year, I give my final prediction and the one I remain accountable for.

GM John Spytek, Fernando Mendoza, Klint Kubiak
GM John Spytek, Fernando Mendoza, Klint Kubiak | Darrell Craig Harris, On SI

How I Do It

I look at ten criteria for every game, and if both sides have five each, I always take the home team.

If I get my prediction within one game, that year was a success. In my previously selected six seasons, I was right twice, within one game twice (all four, in my opinion, subsequently correct), and woefully bad twice, including the utter embarrassment of last season.

Klint Kubiak
Klint Kubiak | Darrell Craig Harris, On SI

I no longer agree with my prediction of seven wins from last May, and without further ado, I present my predictions for the 2026 season.

Regular Season Prediction

Miami Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis
Aug 28, 2026; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis (2) looks on against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Week One September 13, 2026:

Miami Dolphins, 1:25 pm, FOX: WIN (1-0)

Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) sacks Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert
Nov 30, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) sacks Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Week Two September 20, 2026:

@ Los Angeles Chargers, 1:05 pm, CBS: LOSS (1-1)

Week Three September 27, 2026:

Tyler Shough
Aug 22, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough (6) during the game against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

@ New Orleans Saints, 1:25 pm, CBS: WIN (2-1)

Week Four October 4, 2026:

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) greets Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby
Nov 29, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) greets Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) after the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Kansas City Chiefs, 1:25 pm, CBS: LOSS (2-2)

Week Five October 11, 2026:

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) rushes the ball against Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby
Sep 7, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) rushes the ball against Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) in the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

@ New England Patriots, 10:00 am, CBS: LOSS (2-3)

Week Six October 18, 2026:

Maxx Crosby Attaching Josh Allen
Sep 17, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills offensive tackle Spencer Brown (79) prepares to block Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) to protect quarterback Josh Allen (17) in the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Buffalo Bills, 1:25 pm, CBS: LOSS (2-4)

Week Seven October 25, 2026:

Matthew Stafford
Sep 10, 2026; Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) during practice at Marvel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Los Angeles Rams, 1:25 pm, FOX: LOSS (2-5)

Week Eight November 1, 2026:

Geno Smith
Aug 28, 2026; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith (7) looks on during the second half against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

@ New York Jets, 10 am, FOX: WIN (3-5)

Week Nine November 8, 2026:

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy
Aug 27, 2026; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) chat after the game at Allegiant Stadium. at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Trim-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

@ San Francisco 49ers, 1:05 pm, CBS: LOSS (3-6)

Week Ten November 15, 2026:

Sam Darnold
Aug 28, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) warms up prior to a game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Seattle Seahawks, 1:05 pm, CBS: LOSS (3-7)

Week Eleven November 22, 2026:

 Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) chases down Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix
Oct 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) chases down Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) for a sack in the second half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

@ Denver Broncos, 1:25 pm, CBS: LOSS (3-8)

Week Twelve November 29, 2026:

 Cleveland Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders (12) and Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) shake hands after the
Nov 23, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders (12) and Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) shake hands after the game at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

@ Cleveland Browns, 10:00 am, FOX: WIN (4-8)

*Unless there is a Kirk Cousins injury prior, I predict this will be QB Fernando Mendoza’s first start.

Week Thirteen December 6, 2026: BYE

I guarantee the Raiders will not lose this week.

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) is sacked by Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98)
Oct 1, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) is sacked by Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) in the fourth quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Week Fourteen December 13, 2026:

Los Angeles Chargers, 1:05 pm, CBS: LOSS (4-9)

Week Fifteen December 20, 2026:

Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) leaps at Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10)
Oct 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) leaps at Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) for a sack in the second half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Denver Broncos, 1:25 pm, CBS: LOSS (4-10)

Week Sixteen December 27, 2026:

Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward (1) throws the ball away under pressure from Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosb
Oct 12, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward (1) throws the ball away under pressure from Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Tennessee Titans, 1:05 pm, FOX: WIN (5-10)

Week Seventeen January 3, 2027:

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7) is pressured by Oakland Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98)
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7) is pressured by Oakland Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) and Maurice Hurst (73) late in the fourth quarter of their game at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 29, 2019. The Colts lost to the Raiders 31-24. Indianapolis Colts Host The Oakland Raiders | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

@ Arizona Cardinals, 1:05 pm, CBS: WIN (6-10)

Week Eighteen TBD:

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) greets Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98)
Dec 25, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) greets Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) after a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

@ Kansas City Chiefs, TBD: LOSS (6-11)

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Published
Hondo Carpenter
HONDO CARPENTER

Hondo S. Carpenter Sr. is an award-winning sports journalist with decades of experience. He serves as the Senior Writer for NFL and College sports, and is the beat writer covering the Las Vegas Raiders. Additionally, he is the editor and publisher for several sites On SI. Carpenter is a member of the Pro Football Writers Association (PFWA), the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA), and the United States Basketball Writers Association (USBWA).

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