The Early Favorite to be Next Raiders QB is Clear

The Las Vegas Raiders locked up the first-overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. It could become clear who their selection will be soon.

Feb 25, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Las Vegas Raiders general manager John Spytek speaks during the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Las Vegas Raiders have a lot of decisions to make this offseason. They relieved Pete Carroll at the end of the regular season, following his 2-15 finish in his first and only year at the helm.

He joined the quickly growing pile of cast-offs from Sin City, awkwardly reuniting with his former offensive and special teams coordinators, Chip Kelly and Tom MacMahon.

Now, Tom Brady and General Manager John Spytek are on the lookout for the Raiders' next head coach, and there's certainly a possibility that they'll revamp the entire staff to truly embark on a new era. They have more to do than just fill out their sideline personnel, too. This roster was clearly subpar this season, and there are a lot of holes that Las Vegas has to address before 2026 kickoff.

Dec 28, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) is helped off the field in the fourth quarter against the New York Giants at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

One choice will become clear for the Raiders

Pete Carroll might not have been able to make the Las Vegas Raiders a competitive team in his short tenure, but he did significantly help this franchise improve its future prospects. With the first-overall pick in hand, they have a strong chance to add a transformative talent to the roster, and it's looking increasingly likely that they'll spend the selection on a new franchise quarterback to replace Geno Smith.

The Raiders haven't taken a quarterback in the first round since JaMarcus Russell back in 2007. Considering how poorly that went, Las Vegas will want to ensure that it hits on its next pick. So far, it's shaping up to come down to two candidates: Indiana's Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza and Oregon's Dante Moore.

"Fernando can see it...If you allow him to know what you're in, you're dead. He's going to carve you up."

– @danorlovsky7 weighs in on Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore. pic.twitter.com/zmAmwQqVaM

— Dan Patrick Show (@dpshow) January 7, 2026

The good news is that Tom Brady and General Manager John Spytek have a golden opportunity to see how these two top-tier prospects stack up against each other soon, as the Hoosiers take on the Ducks head-to-head in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Friday, January 9.

Whoever has the better performance and leads their team to the College Football Playoff Championship might just secure their status as the upcoming No. 1 pick.

FanDuel favors Mendoza, listing Indiana as 3.5-point favorites at -184 on the moneyline. There's certainly a possibility that Moore outplays his quarterback counterpart, though.

His line is set at 216.5 passing yards, while Mendoza is at 208.5. However, the Hoosiers' gunslinger has better odds to find the end zone, placed at -132 to throw for two or more touchdowns. Moore is at +116 to do the same.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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