How Raiders Could Still Get Some Value From Geno Smith

Despite the disastrous season he had in 2025, the Las Vegas Raiders shouldn't cut Geno Smith this offseason.

Dec 28, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) and running back Ashton Jeanty (2) enter the field against the New York Giants at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Las Vegas Raiders are embarking on a new era... again. Last offseason, they brought in Tom Brady, Pete Carroll, and Chip Kelly to cultivate a new winning identity and culture for this franchise. Fast forward one campaign, and the only one remaining from that group is Brady.

Kelly was given the boot midseason, after the Raiders had already ditched Special Teams Coordinator Tom McMahon, due to his disappointing performance with Las Vegas' offense. Carroll was allowed to finish out the 3-14 season. His losing effort granted the Raiders the first-overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. He won't be around to reap the rewards, though.

Apr 25, 2025; Henderson, NV, USA; (L-R) Las Vegas Raiders general manager John Spytek during a news conference introducing Ashton Jeanty as the first round draft pick in the 2025 NFL Draft at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images | Candice Ward-Imagn Images

Raiders will almost certainly add a new quarterback

With the first-overall pick in hand, the Las Vegas Raiders have to think about the possibility of adding a franchise quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft. In fact, it's almost a guarantee that they'll select either Indiana's Fernando Mendoza or Oregon's Dante Moore to be the next face of this offense. There's no other talent worth spending that kind of capital on.

Las Vegas could theoretically trade down to diversify its assets to increase its chances at adding transformative pieces to this roster, but that doesn't seem like a realistic expectation for this team. The Raiders need to sell hope to their fanbase, and nothing brings more optimism than a shiny new quarterback.

Nov 23, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) is sacked by Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) as defensive tackle Mason Graham (94) looks make a tackle on the play during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Geno Smith was doomed

There was quite a bit of positivity surrounding their original trade for Geno Smith. With him leading the charge for a revamped offense designed by Chip Kelly, there was a lot of belief that Las Vegas could be dangerous on that side of the ball and possibly even field a playoff contender behind the strength of its attack.

That optimism turned out to be false, with Smith having his worst season in a long time. He notched his fewest passing yards, fewest touchdowns, and most interceptions since he became a full-time starter again.

It's easy to see then why the Raiders and their fans want a new quarterback under center. However, there aren't many gunslingers who could have succeeded in the situation Las Vegas gave Smith this season. With a sub-par group of weapons and arguably the worst offensive line in the league protecting him, there was little he could do to elevate this offense.

Nov 2, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) hands off the ball to Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty (2) during the first quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Geno Smith needs to remain the Raiders' bridge

Unless they have an incredible offseason, the Raiders' next quarterback will be inheriting a very similar situation. Considering that both Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore are largely viewed as raw and flawed prospects, throwing either of them into the flames like that could be extremely detrimental to their development.

Geno Smith is under contract through the 2027 season, although Las Vegas has an out after 2026, where it can cut him without incurring any dead cap for the following year. If they cut him this offseason, they'll tack on over $18 million in dead cap. At this point, he likely has zero trade value.

With those things in mind, the Raiders would be better served bringing him back for one more year, even if they draft a quarterback. Then, they can see what he can do with a revamped offense, possibly increase his trade value, and reassess their depth chart from there.

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