The Raiders' Floor and Ceiling After the Schedule Release

Thursday night provided us with much more clarity on the 2026 NFL season, as the entire schedule was officially released.

Several teams around the league garnered the most attention during this process due to factors such as players returning from injuries, contending teams looking to take the next step, and new head coaches. One of those teams is the Las Vegas Raiders, who have a first-time head coach (Klint Kubiak) and an incoming rookie quarterback (Fernando Mendoza).

Apr 24, 2026; Henderson, NV, USA; Las Vegas Raiders coach Klint Kubiak at press conference at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

While those are attractive factors for a team to play standalone slots, the Raiders will feature in zero primetime games in 2026. Las Vegas could take advantage of that with the lack of quick turnarounds. With that being said, here are the Raiders' ceiling and floor following the 2026 schedule release.

Ceiling: 10-7

Apr 8, 2026; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins speaks at a press conference at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images | Candice Ward-Imagn Images

Several things need to go right, and Las Vegas was not handed many favors, which we will discuss later. However, the talent and coaching staff assembled this offseason should be able to surprise many around the league. The Raiders' not participating in one primetime game tells you how the league office views this team heading into next season.

However, if Kirk Cousins can hold down the fort for most of the season, the Raiders have the pieces in place to be competitive in a lot of games. They may not win them all, but they will at least be competitive. Additionally, the league provided Las Vegas with a win on a silver platter to open the season. The Raiders will host the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 at Allegiant Stadium.

Nov 29, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) scrambles from Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Again, the Raiders will need to prove a lot in a large stretch of the season, which will be a make-or-break portion of the schedule, if they want to hit this ceiling. Winning double-digit games is difficult to imagine, seeing how the schedule unfolded for the silver and black. 10 wins is the Raiders' ceiling in 2026.

Floor: 5-12

May 2, 2026; Henderson, NV, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) runs through a drill during a Rookie Minicamp at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images | Candice Ward-Imagn Images

While I don't expect Las Vegas to struggle this much next season, the front office, coaching staff, and players have to be sick to their stomachs with an eight-week stretch featuring the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams, Jets, 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos.

Barring significant injuries and/or unforeseen developments, the Raiders will only be favored against New York during that entire span. Las Vegas' bye week falls between Buffalo and Los Angeles, which doesn't provide much optimism either. The Raiders' season could derail during this stretch, which is why winning only five games is certainly in the cards.

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