Three Worst-Case Scenarios For 2026 Las Vegas Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders begin their first season under the current regime brought together in full this offseason. No. 1 overall draft selection and Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza looks to be the savior of the franchise, while first-year head coach Klint Kubiak hopes to lead a resurgence of the organization.

However, the offseason discourse is about how a team looks on paper, and looks can be deceiving. This means the worst-case scenario for your favorite NFL team could very well happen. Let's look at three scenarios for the Raiders this upcoming season.

Fernando Mendoza Puts Up 2023 Bryce Young-Level Numbers

Mendoza Raiders — May 2, 2026; Henderson, NV, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) speaks during a news conference at the team’s Rookie Minicamp at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images | Candice Ward-Imagn Images

Not every first-round rookie quarterback can step in and do what C.J. Stroud did in 2023 or what Cam Newton did in his rookie season, which was arguably the greatest single-season by a first-year quarterback in league history. Mendoza will start at some point, and he should face struggles during the year as he transitions to the next level.

The worst thing that can happen if Mendoza starts the season is to put up horrific numbers similar to what Bryce Young did as a rookie: 59.8% completion percentage, 2,877 yards, and 11 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. If this were to happen, it could be a long season for Las Vegas.

Defense Fails To Improve After Productive Offseason

Leonard LV — Jun 3, 2026; Henderson, NV, USA; Las Vegas Raiders defensive coordinator Rob Leonard speaks during a news conference during organized team activities at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images | Candice Ward-Imagn Images

It is hard to imagine the Raiders' defense regressing or failing to progress this upcoming season, but Raiders Nation knows well that nothing is certain. Defensive coordinator Rob Leonard leads the charge with brand-new additions at all three levels of the defense through free agency and the NFL Draft in what has been a year of upgrades for Vegas.

The worst-case scenario is seeing little improvement from last year, when the Raiders hovered around the bottom tier, then moved into mediocrity for much of the season, playing "bend-don't-break" games. Whether injuries or underperformance play a factor, it would be disheartening to see futile change from this group.

Raiders in Contention for No. 1 Overall Pick, Again

Feb 24, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Las Vegas Raiders general manager John Spytek speaks at the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

This frankly wouldn't be the wildest possibility, considering the current state of the roster. There are still areas that must improve in future offseasons that were not resolved this year. The team has improved enough to increase its win total, but there is always a chance they could be back near the top of the draft order in 2027.

It wouldn't be the worst situation in the world; the 2027 NFL Draft is deserving of the hype its getting this summer, and the Raiders should be looking at drafting the best avilable non-quarterback prospect in the class, which could be a combination of Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, Texas wide receiver Cam Coleman, Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore, South Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart, and LSU offensive tackle Jordan Seaton.

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