Rams’ Latest Second-Half Collapse Exposes a Troubling Trend

During Sean McVay’s first five years in the NFL, the Los Angeles Rams were unbeatable once they led at halftime. Prior to Week 18 of the 2021 season, McVay and the Rams were 45-0 when leading at halftime.

That streak snapped against the San Francisco 49ers. In Week 18 of the 2021 season, the Rams led 17-3 at halftime. The 49ers scored a touchdown on their opening drive of the second half and then following a three-and-out, they scored another touchdown. Before the third quarter was over, the Rams went from leading by two touchdowns to being tied.

With a Matthew Stafford interception in overtime, the Rams went on to lose 27-24. McVay was no longer undefeated with a halftime lead and the loss came against a division rival.

The Start of a Troubling Trend for the Rams

That was the start of what has become a growing trend under McVay and the Rams. Last season, the Rams led the Eagles 19-7 at halftime and 26-7 in the third quarter. The Eagles would go on to win 33-26.

The Rams led the Seattle Seahawks 13-7 at halftime in Week 16 last year and eventually took a 30-14 lead. They lost that game 38-37 in overtime. It ended up being a turning point in the Rams’ season.

On Sunday against the Denver Broncos, the Rams led 16-0 at halftime. Before the third quarter was over, the game was tied. The Rams would go on to lose, 30-26.

Rams’ History of Blown Leads Is Becoming Hard to Ignore

Three times over the last two years, the Rams have lost games in which they led by 10 or more points in the second half. According to RamsWire, the Rams only had four games in which they led by 16 points between 2000-2024.

That doesn’t mention games that have been close after the Rams had a big lead. In the 2021 NFC Divisional Round, the Rams led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-3 at halftime only to need a last-second field goal to win.

In 2022, the Rams led the Atlanta Falcons 28-3. It took a Jalen Ramsey interception in the end zone with 1:18 left to secure the win. After McVay went 48-1 when leading at halftime to start his career, the Rams went 3-4 in 2022, including three straight losses.

The next season, the Rams led the Indianapolis Colts 23-0 and needed overtime to win. They led the Giants 20-10 and only really won that game because of a missed two-point conversion and missed last-second field goal.

In 2024, the Rams also experienced some drama. They led the New England Patriots 28-13 in the fourth quarter and needed an interception with 1:55 to clinch the win. Later in the year, the Rams led the Bills 38-21 in the second half and only won by two. After leading the Arizona Cardinals 10-0, the Rams won 13-9 and only won because of an Ahkello Witherspoon interception in the end zone with under a minute to play.

Since the Rams lost to the 49ers in Week 18 of 2021, the Rams are 27-11 when leading at halftime. They have a 71.1 percent win percentage when they have a halftime lead. Something that used to be seen as a guarantee has now become much less of a certainty.

Why the Rams Have Struggled to Protect Leads

It’s hard to understand the exact reasons why the Rams have struggled more in these areas. It could partially be due to the lack of success or commitment to running the ball late in games. To start McVay’s career, the Rams had one of the best rushing attacks with Todd Gurley. The Rams started to get some consistency from Kyren Williams last season, but still managed to lose three games after leading at halftime.

Additionally, there was always going to be some natural regression back to the mean. Still, when it comes to the blown big leads, there is a consistent theme and that is special teams. It’s not always the case, but it has been more times than not.

Rams’ Special Teams Issues Keep Showing Up in Big Moments

The Rams led the Falcons 31-17 before a blocked punt returned for a touchdown made that 31-25. Early in the fourth quarter of the Colts’ comeback in 2023, Brett Maher missed a 48-yard field goal that would have put the Rams up 26-8. Maher missed and the Colts turned that next drive into a touchdown. The Rams then had two potential game-winning field goals blocked against the Eagles last season. Against the Seahawks in Week 16, it was Rashid Shaheed’s punt return for a touchdown that flipped the game. On Sunday against the Broncos, the Rams’ punt unit allowed two major errors that led to short fields and eventual touchdowns.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Rams started blowing big leads more often once John Fassell left and the special teams unit started to take a hit. When it comes to creating long fields for opposing teams, making field goals late in games, or avoiding catastrophic mistakes, special teams play a big role. Instead of getting consistent play in that area, the catastrophic errors that flip momentum and change games are happening more frequently.

For much of McVay’s tenure, the Rams were able to close those games out without much drama. That hasn’t been the case over the last two years especially. Sunday night was just the latest example. The offense and defense certainly deserve their share of the blame, but all three phases, as well as coaching, have played a role.

There was a time when a halftime lead under McVay essentially meant the game was over. Due to recent results, there is much less confidence in the Rams being able to protect those types of leads. Games never truly feel over. That ability to close out games has disappeared over the last several seasons, and it’s become a concerning trend.

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