Make or Break for Rams/ Here's What History Says About Week 1

The Los Angeles Rams are entering the 2026 season with Super Bowl expectations. However, if the Rams are going to do that, it will be important to set the tone in Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers.

There is no doubting the importance of winning in Week 1 and how it impacts the rest of the season. Rotowire examined the results from Week 1 over the last 10 NFL seasons. Here were the key takeaways:

Playoffs: Teams that win in Week 1 have a 59.0 percent chance of making the playoffs. That drops to 25.6 percent for teams that lose in Week 1.

Win division: Teams that win in Week 1 have a 35.3 percent chance of winning their division. However, that drops to a 16.0 percent chance with a loss in the opener.

Reach divisional round: Teams that win in Week 1 have a 32.7 percent chance of advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs. With a loss, that drops to 18.6 percent.

Reach conference championship game: Teams that win in Week 1 have a 19.2 percent chance of advancing to the NFC or AFC title game. Teams that lose in Week 1 only have a 6.4 percent chance.

Reach the Super Bowl: Teams that win in Week 1 have a 9.0 percent chance of reaching the Super Bowl compared to a 3.8 percent chance for teams that lose.

Win the Super Bowl: Teams that win in Week 1 have a 4.5 percent chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy. Meanwhile, teams that lose in Week 1 only have a 1.9 percent chance. The last team to win the Super Bowl after losing Week 1 was the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs. Eight of the last 10 Super Bowl winners won their Week 1 game.

Sean McVay in Week 1

The Rams are 7-2 under Sean McVay in Week 1. His only two losses came in 2022, the year after winning the Super Bowl, and in 2025, when the Rams had injuries at wide receiver and the offensive line. When the Rams have managed to stay healthy, they have gotten off to a strong start to begin the year.

This season, the Rams will play the 49ers to start the year. During the McVay era, the Rams have played an NFC West opponent just once in Week 1. That was the Seattle Seahawks to start the 2023 season, and the Rams won that game 30-13.

Outside of the 2019 season, the Rams have made the playoffs every year that they have started with a win in Week 1. Here are the yearly results:

2025 - Rams 14, Texans 9: Last season, the Rams started with a close, defensive battle against the Houston Texans. Matthew Stafford hit Davis Allen in the end zone to give the Rams the lead in the third quarter, and they held on to win.

2024 - Lions 26, Rams 20 (OT): To start the 2024 season, the Rams were without Steve Avila and left tackle Alaric Jackson at left tackle. Cooper Kupp also began the year on injured reserve. Despite being short-handed, the Rams took the Lions to overtime but ended up falling short. Despite a slow start, the Rams found a way into the postseason.

2023 - Rams 30, Seahawks 13: The Rams weren’t expected to be good entering the 2023 season, but they quickly put that narrative to bed. They scored 23 unanswered points in the second half to get the win. The Rams finished second in the NFC West, but made the playoffs.

2022 - Bills 31, Rams 10: Coming off a Super Bowl win, there was a lot of talk of running it back. Unfortunately, injuries to the offensive line, which started in Week 1, set the tone for a difficult season. This was the first time McVay had lost in Week 1.

2021 - Rams 34, Bears 14: It didn’t take long for the Rams to confirm that they would be Super Bowl contenders with Matthew Stafford. When Stafford hit Van Jefferson for a 53-yard touchdown pass, it was a good sign of what the Rams would do that season.

2020 - Rams 20, Cowboys 17: The Rams played the Cowboys close to start the 2020 season; however, it was rookie safety Jordan Fuller tackling CeeDee Lamb inside the 10 that proved to be the difference. There was a lot of drama at the end of the year, but the Rams scraped and clawed into the playoffs.

2019 - Rams 30, Panthers 27: Despite getting the win in Week 1 against the Panthers, this was the first time the Rams missed the playoffs under Sean McVay. What’s even more remarkable is that they actually started the season 3-0.

2018 - Rams 33, Raiders 13: The Rams delivered another dominant performance, setting the tone for the year. The Rams would go on to play in the Super Bowl and go 13-3.

2017: Rams 46, Colts 9: It didn’t take long to realize that Sean McVay was going to be the head coach to turn the Rams’ franchise around. Jared Goff threw for 300 yards for the first time in his career, and McVay became the youngest head coach to win in his NFL debut.

The Challenge This Year

Playing the 49ers to start the season would be challenging in any year. While the Rams have won four of the last five meetings, McVay is just 8-11 against the 49ers since 2017. That included a stretch where the Rams lost nine of 10 meetings.

Additionally, the Rams will be traveling to the other side of the world for Week 1. The Rams won’t be playing the 49ers at SoFi Stadium. Instead, the game will be played at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne, Australia. It’s always a challenge to play an international game, but especially when that game is in Week 1 and in a time zone 17 hours ahead.

“You trust your players. You really set some of the foundational things that you want to do, and then you have to be ready to adjust and adapt accordingly,” said McVay. “But it is very different.”

Unlike the 49ers, who arrived in Australia this week, the Rams will travel on Wednesday and arrive in Melbourne on Thursday right before the game. The Rams will essentially have a walk-through and then get ready to play.

While winning in Australia against the 49ers won’t guarantee the playoffs or a Super Bowl, it would certainly get the Rams started in the right direction. A win against a division rival to start 1-0 in the NFC West would set the tone for the season.

Add us as a preferred source on Google