Rams Need Matthew Stafford to Break This Concerning Trend to Win the Super Bowl

It should seem pretty obvious that the Los Angeles Rams will only go as far as Matthew Stafford takes them in 2026. That has been the case ever since Stafford arrived in Los Angeles, and that isn’t going to change any time soon. In 2021, it was Stafford’s six fourth-quarter comebacks that helped the Rams to a Super Bowl. During the 2023 and 2024 seasons, Stafford’s level of play helped the team exceed expectations. Last year, Stafford played at an MVP level and led the Rams to the NFC Championship Game.

This isn’t to say that the Rams need another MVP season from Stafford. However, they need him to continue playing like a top-five quarterback if they are going to meet their high expectations this season. To do that, Stafford is going to have to break a concerning trend that’s plagued him throughout his career.

Stafford Has Struggled to Follow Up His Biggest Seasons

In 2011, Stafford threw for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns with the Detroit Lions. The very next season, he threw for less than half that, with 20 touchdowns. During the Rams’ Super Bowl season in 2021, Stafford threw for 41 touchdowns once again. While he got injured in 2022, he was only on pace for 18.9 touchdowns that season.

Last year, Stafford threw for a career-high 46 touchdowns. If the Rams are going to meet expectations in 2026, they can’t afford a massive drop-off from Stafford. Again, that isn’t to say that they need him to once again throw over 40 touchdown passes. However, it’s hard to see the Rams winning the Super Bowl if he only throws 20. He’ll need to throw at least 25 touchdown passes.

How Much Regression Can the Rams Afford From Stafford?

With Stafford, there is certainly going to be some statistical regression. His touchdown rate of 7.7 percent was nearly double the previous season and was the best of his career. However, if Stafford has around 550 pass attempts this season and finishes closer to his career touchdown rate of 4.8 percent, that would put him at 26 touchdown passes.

That’s something that the Rams could get by with. With that said, if Stafford drops to a 3.5 percent touchdown rate, that would put him at 19.3 touchdowns for the season, which would be difficult for the rest of the offense to overcome.

Stafford’s Career Splits Tell an Interesting Story

Additionally, throughout Stafford’s career, his odd years have typically been better than his even ones. Stafford has three seasons when he’s averaged a quarterback rating over 100. All three of those seasons came in odd years. He averages over 30 yards more per game in odd years and over 12 more touchdowns per season.

This isn’t to say that Stafford hasn’t had good even years. He’s thrown for over 4,000 yards four times in even years, including 4,967 in 2012. Stafford also made the Pro Bowl in 2014 and led the Rams to the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs in 2024 after playing well over the back half of the season.

Stat	Even Years Split	Odd Years Split
Yards Per Game	248 ypg	279.9 ypg
Touchdowns	18.6	30.4
Interceptions	9.6	13.2
QB Rating	89.7	94.4
QBR	55.3	61.2
Adj. EPA/Play	0.01	0.132

Rams Have Prioritized Keeping Stafford Fresh

With that said, it’s certainly a trend to note with the Rams having high expectations and a likely statistical regression coming for Stafford. The Rams have made it a point this offseason to keep Stafford as fresh as possible. They’ve rested him every other day to try and replicate what he did last year to start the season. Stafford didn’t practice at all during training camp as he dealt with a back injury. While the Rams couldn’t have Stafford completely sit out practice again, they have managed his workload to keep him as fresh as possible going into Week 1.

The Rams have done what they can to avoid another dramatic decline. After Stafford threw for a career-high 46 touchdowns last year, expecting him to replicate that would be unrealistic, but the Rams have also given him a supporting cast that should ensure he doesn’t need to.

Still, there is a difference between natural regression and the type of drop-off that Stafford has experienced at times in his career. After another career year in 2025, the Rams will be counting on him to break that trend this season.

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