Ravens Retake Division Lead With Massive Steelers Game Ahead

The Baltimore Ravens didn’t get the Thanksgiving they wanted. Joe Burrow returned from injured reserve and picked up right where he left off, ripping through coverage and turning Baltimore’s mistakes into points in a game that started with promise and ended in frustration. Costly turnovers, drive-killing penalties, and a run game that evaporated in the second half, especially from Derrick Henry, turned a winnable spot into a moral defeat for a team that needed momentum more than good intentions.

Ravens Get Help From Buffalo in Tightening AFC North Race

What kept the division race from spiraling completely was a little help from across the AFC. Pittsburgh fell to Buffalo 26–7, a result Ravens fans were openly hoping for as the standings jostled into a new shape. That loss nudged Baltimore back to the top of the AFC North and turned what was a deflating week into one that still contains optimistic angles if the Ravens can clean up the things that lost them last Thursday.

A quick note on Pittsburgh’s situation that matters for context heading into the upcoming matchup. Aaron Rodgers, who had missed a game with a fractured wrist, returned to start against Buffalo but had a rough night completing just 10 of 21 passes before exiting after a costly strip-sack. The Steelers’ offense never found a rhythm and the Bills took control in the second half. That sequence matters because it shapes how Baltimore might approach its game plan against a Steelers unit that has questions under center and in protection.

Here are the projections to win the AFC North:

Ravens (6-6): 58%
Steelers (6-6): 35%
Bengals (4-8): 7%

Source: ESPN Analytics
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) December 1, 2025

Numbers matter when the margins are thin, and the projections reflect just how tight this division really is. According to ESPN Analytics, the Ravens sit at a 58 percent chance to win the AFC North, with the Steelers close behind at 35 percent. The Bengals, sitting at 4–8, hold just a 7 percent chance. It’s a snapshot that shows the division is still very much up for grabs, but it also makes clear that Baltimore holds the most leverage heading into this critical stretch.

A Pivotal Steelers Matchup With Playoff Stakes Written All Over It

So where does Baltimore go from here? Fix the fundamentals. Protect the ball, clean up penalties that extend opponent drives, and force the run game to be a stabilizing factor, not an afterthought. Derrick Henry can still set the tone but he needs help from the offensive line and from play-calling that reestablishes physicality and clock control. On defense, schematic adjustments and tighter tackling will be the difference between making the Steelers one-dimensionally hopeful and truly beating them in a game that will feel like a playoff tilt.

The calendar says it is still Week 14 but the atmosphere says something bigger. With the division hanging in the balance and the Steelers game shaping up like a championship preview in miniature, Baltimore has a chance to convert disappointment into something meaningful. If the Ravens come alive, clean, and focused, this could be the moment that separates a team that just survives from one that’s built to finish.

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