Ravens Short-Yardage Woes May Be Hard To Overcome In 2026

We’ve chronicled some of the many issues facing rookie offensive coordinator Declan Doyle in 2026, with a focus on the passing game given the exodus of talent and the slow starts and redzone problems from a year ago.

But there are also issues that relate to more old-school football, simple line of scrimmage battles that existed long before teams were spreading everyone out and living in 11 personnel like crazy. Obvious running situations and picking up the tough yard and winning on third-and-short and goal line situations became quite an obstacle for the 2025 Ravens, even with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in the backfield as one of the more unique and dynamic combos in NFL history.

And with Henry at 32 and Lamar pushing 30, and Doyle new to all of this, this aspect of the offense merited a deeper deconstruction as well. And that’s what we do. Jackson probably won’t run as much as he’s done in years past and Henry, frankly, can’t run over 300 times yet again (he’s never done it in three straight years in his career) and it’s fair to wonder if this offensive line is going to be improved sufficiently to keep these issues from dragging down Baltimore in the upcoming season.

We’ll also peek into some of the tendencies of Broncos head coach Sean Payton, Doyle’s longtime mentor and the offensive schemer and play caller he’s spent the bulk of his career with, for a portal into some of the ways this offensive might adapt to try to improve under a new staff.

Short-Yardage Struggles

The Ravens regressed from third in the NFL in 2024 in goal-to-go situations (88.6% conversation) to 12th a year ago (74%). Things never got off to a great start, with former coordinator Todd Monken trying some gadget plays and halfback option passes for Henry and odd personnel groupings. More than once Jackson looked mystified about what we coming into his helmet; attempts at utilizing jumbo personnel went awry (Baltimore lacked five starting caliber offensive linemen let alone six or more of them), and it was a janky operation when they needed an essential yard or two.

For every Wild Cat direct snap to tight end Mark Andrews that led to a big play, there were far more failures. The Ravens went from converting 77.4% of their third-and-three-or-less opportunities in 2024 – far and away tops in the NFL – to converting those chances just 55.6% of the time in 2025 (24th !!). It’s impossible to overstate how much of this was due to getting bullied at the line of scrimmage but is losing one of the best centers in the NFL, upgrading significantly at guard, and praying Ronnie Stanley holds up again at left tackle a substantial enough upgrade?

The King Needs More From His Court

Expecting Doyle to scheme it up (more on that in a minute) and Hery to be able to drag tacklers all over the field now over 2700 carries into his career (including playoffs) is a reach. Henry can’t get swarmed in the backfield and overcome it. He shouldn’t have to.

I also don’t think the designed runs for Lamar spike whatsoever and this offense got away from a traditional fullback in letting Pat Ricard walk to the Giants, and they are hardly overflowing with proven deep threats to back defenses off.

Henry converted 68.2% of his third-down attempts running the ball in 2024 (4th among all RBs) and that plummeted to 16th last season (57.7%). Peel back some of the season-long numbers for Henry across the board, and it’s clear things go beyond him being human and aging some.

Henry averaged an absurd 2.41 yards before contact in 2024 (second among all RBs) when the league average was 1.46. In 2025, Henry ranked 10th among running backs at 1.60 yards before contact (NFL average was 1.33). In 2024 Henry led the NFL in yards per carry against an eight-man box (absurd 6.3/rush) and last year it was 3.8/carry against stacked boxes (12th).

He also avoided far fewer tackles. Henry ranked 11th among RBs (with at least 100 carries) with a tackle avoid rate of 24.3 in 2024 (per TruMedia) and that fall to 14% last year (43rd among qualified running backs). Expecting him to reverse time at age 32 and buck those trends seems a little foolish, and so perhaps Doyle needs to take another approach.

What Can Doyle Do?

If this offensive line isn’t much improved, perhaps nothing else will really matter and nothing else will really change. I asked longtime NFL QB and analyst Phil Simms, a product of head coach Bill Parcells as with Payton, what he thought Payton may have most instilled in a longtime pupil like Doyle.

“He’s very aggressive, which I love,” he responded, having studied Payton’s offenses for years and know Payton’s mentor as well as he does. “And he’s not going to worry about, ‘What’s going to happen if we don’t get it?’ I don’t think that ever crosses his mind.”

Perhaps, the Ravens turning to inspired passing looks on third-and-short and breaking tendencies will be more effective than running Henry up the gut behind a suspect line. The Ravens attempted just 21 passes on third-and-short opportunities last year, seventh-fewest in the NFL, and they converted just five of them (23.8%, tied with Minnesota for 31st in the NFL).

No way should Jackson be sharing a similar look to JJ McCarthy in anything, let alone money-down, high-percentage looks. Payton threw 37 times on third-and-short, second-most in the NFL, even with Bo Nix struggling at times, and he wasn’t shy taking deep shots in those situations,, either.

John Harbaugh seemed to shy away from embracing going for it on fourth down near the end of his coaching stint in Baltimore, and Payton has always been known for a “go-for-the-throat” mentality that should rub off on Doyle. Rookie head coach Jesse Minter obviously has final say on those decisions, but with a young kicker still unproven and with what should be an improved defense in 2026, leaning into letting Jackson uncork something instead of Henry running into a wall of linemen and linebackers and safeties might be the way to go.

Payton trailed only Sean McVay (Rams) in attempts of 15-air yards or more called from third-and-short over the past two seasons, with 14 … The Ravens attempted it just three times. Perhaps that's one place to start.

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